Gemini enters liquidity and distribution war

Gemini is not entering a niche product lane, it is entering a distribution and liquidity war. Kalshi and Polymarket already proved that event contracts can pull huge trading volume, especially in sports, and mainstream brokers are now using partnerships, acquisitions, and new product launches to fold prediction markets into the same app where users already trade stocks, options, and crypto. For Gemini, that makes prediction markets a way to raise trading frequency beyond episodic crypto cycles.

• Kalshi and Polymarket have split the market by structure. Kalshi is the regulated U.S. venue with fiat rails and higher compliance costs. Polymarket is the crypto native venue with global reach, zero or near zero fees, and stronger politics liquidity. Gemini is trying to blend the regulatory comfort of Kalshi with the crypto user base it already has.
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• The harder problem is not listing contracts, it is getting enough orders on both sides so prices feel tight and markets stay usable. Prediction markets increasingly behave like infrastructure businesses, where the venues with the most volume become the venues brokers, apps, and developers route into. That is why Robinhood uses Kalshi, Coinbase plans prediction markets via Kalshi, and builders are creating routers across venues.
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• Sports is what turns this from election season novelty into an everyday trading product. Kalshi’s business shifted heavily into sports, and research across the category shows sports contracts resolve fast, recycle capital quickly, and create daily reasons to open the app. That makes the category especially attractive for Gemini, whose core exchange revenue has been smaller and more cyclical than larger peers.
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The next phase is likely a market where a few venues own the core liquidity and many brokers and apps own the customer relationship. If Gemini secures approval and launches globally, the win condition is not just more contracts on screen. It is becoming a daily habit for traders and a credible endpoint for routed event order flow.