Front-End Wallets Versus Shared Liquidity
Kurush Dubash, CEO of Dome, on unified API for prediction markets
Robinhood has the strongest reason in this market to keep users inside its own app because it already owns the customer relationship at massive scale. A Robinhood user can open the app, fund an account, and trade event contracts alongside stocks, options, and futures, which makes prediction markets another engagement feature inside a broader brokerage. That is very different from a venue like Kalshi, which grows fastest by getting its contracts and liquidity distributed everywhere.
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Robinhood launched its prediction markets hub in March 2025 through Kalshi’s regulated exchange, then moved in December 2025 to deepen control of the stack through a joint venture and planned exchange and clearinghouse operation with Susquehanna. That is the clearest sign of a platform that wants more vertical ownership over time.
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Kalshi has taken the opposite route. It has pushed distribution through partners, data integrations, and industry alliances, including Robinhood, CNN, CNBC, and Barchart. That strategy treats prediction markets less like a destination app and more like infrastructure that becomes more valuable as more order flow lands on it.
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The real constraint is liquidity. Prediction markets work best when many buyers and sellers meet in one place, so tight spreads and deep markets matter more than brand alone. Even Robinhood, despite reporting 11.0 million MAUs in Q3 2025, initially relied on Kalshi’s venue, showing that distribution and liquidity can be owned by different players.
The market is heading toward a split model. Consumer apps like Robinhood will try to own the front end, the wallet, and the habit, while exchanges like Kalshi fight to be the shared liquidity layer underneath many apps. As more brokers, sportsbooks, and crypto platforms enter, the winners will be the ones that can combine distribution with the deepest pools of tradable volume.