Robotaxi market sorting into four layers

The key split is between companies that own the ride and companies that sell picks and shovels into the ride. Waymo and Zoox are building a full service where they control the car, software, dispatch, and rider app, which lets them keep the whole fare but forces them to buy vehicles, hire ops teams, and expand city by city. Applied Intuition and Wayve sell software into OEMs instead, while Uber sits above both as the traffic router and fleet partners like Moove and Oro handle the messy work of charging, cleaning, repair, and depot staffing.

• The operator layer is capital heavy but captures the most revenue per trip. Waymo combines its own app with partners, including Uber in Austin and Atlanta and Moove for fleet operations, which shows even the most advanced operator is already unbundling parts of the stack to scale faster.
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• The software layer looks more like enterprise SaaS. Applied Intuition reached $830M ARR in 2025 by selling simulation and vehicle software across cars, trucks, mining, and defense, while Wayve signed Nissan to ship driver assistance, showing how licensors can spread across many vehicle makers without owning fleets.
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• The aggregator and fleet layers are becoming standalone businesses, not side functions. Uber has built autonomous products, insurance, and partner integrations around many AV programs, while Hertz's Oro unit is taking over day to day robotaxi asset management for Uber's Lucid and Nuro program.
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Over time, these four layers should harden into a structure that looks more like airlines and online travel than traditional car ownership. A few operators will own the best autonomy brands, a few software vendors will power everyone else, Uber will bundle demand across networks, and fleet specialists will become the hidden industrial backbone that keeps robotaxis on the road.