Verticals vs aggregators vs software

The robotaxi market is splitting into three different businesses, and each one wins a different part of the value chain. Waymo and Tesla are trying to own the whole ride, car, software, fleet, app, and fare. Uber is trying to become the default storefront that sends demand to many AV fleets. Applied Intuition and Wayve are selling the driving system to carmakers, which is a slower path but one with software margins and less fleet capital.

• Waymo shows what vertical integration buys. It controls the rider app, dispatch, vehicle behavior, and fleet economics, and in mature markets it is already near 63% contribution margin. The tradeoff is heavy capital and city by city rollout, with vehicle cost and utilization determining whether the model compounds.
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• Uber is taking the Expedia or Booking layer. After exiting Uber ATG, it rebuilt around partnerships and launched Uber Autonomous Solutions in February 2026 to supply partners with dispatch, rider demand, insurance, data tools, and fleet operations support. That makes Uber valuable even if it never owns the driving brain.
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• B2B software players monetize differently. Applied Intuition reached an estimated $830M ARR in 2025 and sells tools and vehicle software to 18 of the top 20 automakers, while Wayve is being integrated by Stellantis into STLA AutoDrive for a 2028 launch. These companies get broad distribution through OEMs, but they sit behind long vehicle programs instead of collecting fares now.
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The next phase is a race over who becomes the default interface between riders, cars, and carmakers. Vertically integrated operators are likely to lead early in quality and economics in dense geofenced markets. Aggregators will matter more as many fleets launch. Software licensors will matter most when autonomy becomes a standard feature inside mass market vehicles.