Revenue
$430.00M
2022
Valuation
$2.10B
2022
Funding
$812.00M
2022
Valuation: $2.10B in 2022
Key mobile game publishers by 2021 revenue and YoY revenue growth. The size of the bubble represents valuation.
Voodoo last raised $370M from GBL in August 2021 at a valuation of $1.8B. It has raised $570M (excluding an undisclosed investment by Tencent) and its valuation/revenue multiple of 5.2 is in the same ballpark as its competitors in the hyper-casual game genre, such as 5.3 of AppLovin (parent company of Lion Studios), 7.2 of IronSource (parent company of Supersonic Studios), and 6.9 of Embracer Group (parent company of Crazy Labs).
Scenarios: $833M to $2.2B ARR by 2028
To evaluate Voodoo's future potential, we analyze multiple scenarios projecting annual recurring revenue through 2028. These scenarios incorporate various growth trajectories and industry-standard valuation multiples, considering market dynamics in the hyper-casual gaming sector and the company's competitive positioning.
| 2023 Revenue ($M) | $570M | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 14.00% |
With revenue reaching $570M and a 14% growth rate in 2023, Voodoo demonstrates moderate expansion in the competitive mobile gaming market, though growth has decelerated compared to previous years as the hyper-casual gaming segment matures and faces increased competition.
| Multiple | Valuation |
|---|---|
| 1x | $570M |
| 5x | $2.9B |
| 10x | $5.7B |
| 15x | $8.6B |
| 25x | $14.2B |
Based on Voodoo's current revenue of $570M, valuations span from $570M at a conservative 1x multiple to $14.2B at an aggressive 25x multiple. The company's current valuation/revenue multiple of 5.2x suggests a fair market value around $2.9B, consistent with comparable hyper-casual gaming competitors.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $570M | $636M | $696M | $748M | $794M | $833M |
| 7.0% | $570M | $639M | $706M | $769M | $829M | $887M |
| 9.0% | $570M | $642M | $716M | $790M | $866M | $944M |
| 11.0% | $570M | $645M | $726M | $812M | $904M | $1B |
| 15.0% | $570M | $651M | $746M | $856M | $983M | $1.1B |
| 19.0% | $570M | $657M | $766M | $901M | $1.1B | $1.3B |
| 24.0% | $570M | $665M | $792M | $960M | $1.2B | $1.5B |
| 31.0% | $570M | $676M | $828M | $1B | $1.4B | $1.8B |
| 40.0% | $570M | $690M | $876M | $1.2B | $1.6B | $2.2B |
Revenue projections show potential scenarios ranging from $833M at a conservative 5% growth rate to $2.2B at an aggressive 40% growth rate by 2028. This represents a 1.5x to 3.9x increase from 2023 levels, reflecting both market maturation risks and upside opportunities in casual gaming expansion.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 1x | 5x | 10x | 15x | 25x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $833M | $4.2B | $8.3B | $12.5B | $20.8B |
| 7.0% | $887M | $4.4B | $8.9B | $13.3B | $22.2B |
| 9.0% | $944M | $4.7B | $9.4B | $14.2B | $23.6B |
| 11.0% | $1B | $5B | $10B | $15B | $25.1B |
| 15.0% | $1.1B | $5.7B | $11.3B | $17B | $28.3B |
| 19.0% | $1.3B | $6.3B | $12.7B | $19B | $31.7B |
| 24.0% | $1.5B | $7.3B | $14.6B | $21.9B | $36.6B |
| 31.0% | $1.8B | $8.8B | $17.7B | $26.5B | $44.2B |
| 40.0% | $2.2B | $11.2B | $22.3B | $33.5B | $55.8B |
Projected 2028 valuations range from $833M at conservative estimates (5% growth, 1x multiple) to $55.8B under aggressive scenarios (40% growth, 25x multiple), with mid-range scenarios around $10-15B reflecting moderate growth and industry-standard multiples aligned with peer companies.
Bear, Base, and Bull Cases: 4.5x, 6.5x, 8.5x
To evaluate potential outcomes, we examine bear (4.5x), base (6.5x), and bull (8.5x) case scenarios. These multiples reflect varying market conditions, competitive dynamics, and Voodoo's ability to execute its growth strategy in the evolving mobile gaming landscape.
| Scenario | 2028 Growth Rate (%) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Bear 🐻 | 12% | 4.5 |
| Base 📈 | 15% | 6.5 |
| Bull 🚀 | 20% | 8.5 |
Growth expectations range from a conservative 12% with a 4.5x multiple in the bear case to an ambitious 20% growth and 8.5x multiple in the bull scenario. The base case of 15% growth and 6.5x multiple aligns with current industry standards for successful hyper-casual gaming companies.
| Bear 🐻 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $570M | $647M | $731M | $822M | $923M | $1B |
| Growth | 14.00% | 13.46% | 13.00% | 12.54% | 12.24% | 12% |
| Base 📈 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $570M | $651M | $746M | $856M | $983M | $1.1B |
| Growth | 14.00% | 14.27% | 14.50% | 14.73% | 14.88% | 15% |
| Bull 🚀 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $570M | $659M | $771M | $913M | $1.1B | $1.3B |
| Growth | 14.00% | 15.61% | 17.00% | 18.39% | 19.28% | 20% |
Our bear, base, and bull cases for Voodoo reflect varying scenarios of market competition and strategic execution in the mobile gaming space
- In the bear case, intensifying competition leads to declining growth to 12% and a conservative 4.5x multiple, resulting in a $4.7B valuation ($1.03B revenue)
- In the base case, successful maintenance of market position and moderate expansion yields 15% growth and a 6.5x multiple, achieving a $7.3B valuation ($1.13B revenue)
- In the bull case, successful diversification and ad network development drives 20% growth and commands an 8.5x multiple, reaching an $11.1B valuation ($1.31B revenue).
| Scenario | 1. Bear 🐻 | 2. Base 📈 | 3. Bull 🚀 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Revenue | $570M | $570M | $570M |
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| 2023 Multiple | 4.5 | 6.5 | 8.5 |
| 2023 Valuation | $2.6B | $3.7B | $4.8B |
| 2028 Revenue | $1B | $1.1B | $1.3B |
| 2028 Growth Rate (%) | 12% | 15% | 20% |
| Multiple | 4.5 | 6.5 | 8.5 |
| 2028 Valuation | $4.7B | $7.3B | $11.1B |
The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on Voodoo's ability to maintain its hyper-casual gaming position, successfully expand into casual games, develop a competitive ad network, and capitalize on blockchain gaming opportunities while navigating intense market competition and evolving player preferences.
- In the Bear case: Intensifying competition in hyper-casual games continues to erode margins, while Voodoo's attempts to diversify into casual games and blockchain gaming fail to gain traction, leading to stagnant growth and declining profitability.
- In the Base case: Voodoo successfully maintains its hyper-casual gaming position while gradually expanding into casual games through acquisitions like Beach Bum, achieving moderate growth through a balanced portfolio of both game types.
- In the Bull case: Voodoo leverages its massive user base of 300M MAU to build a powerful ad network rivaling AppLovin and IronSource, while simultaneously transforming into a multi-faceted gaming company with successful expansions into casual games, blockchain gaming, and social gaming through Tencent integration.
These final valuations present a range of outcomes for Voodoo, from a conservative $4.7B in the bear case to $11.1B in the bull scenario by 2028. The base case of $7.3B reflects moderate success in maintaining market position while diversifying beyond hyper-casual games.
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