GUSD 1% Market Could Yield $80M

This only works if Gemini turns GUSD from a side product into a balance sheet engine. Gemini made just $68.6M in H1 2025, and GUSD reserve income is still tiny today, but the stablecoin model is powerful because every new dollar of circulation can earn yield on T bills and money market assets without needing more traders to show up. That is why 1% market share matters so much more than it sounds.

• Gemini already runs the kind of regulated setup institutions care about. It is a New York trust company, custody is core to its pitch, and GUSD is marketed as dollar backed with monthly attestations and reserves held in cash, money market funds, and short dated Treasuries. That makes GUSD easier to sell into treasury and settlement workflows than into consumer crypto wallets.
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• The math comes from float economics. Gemini’s own research says GUSD generates about $2M a year today, while Circle produced $658M of revenue and reserve income in Q2 2025 on $61.3B of USDC in circulation. In practice, a stablecoin winner looks less like an exchange taking trading fees and more like a narrow bank earning spread on very safe assets.
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• The harder part is distribution, not regulation. Businesses use stablecoins when they need dollars to move outside banking hours, pay overseas contractors, settle large transfers instantly, or keep treasury on chain while still paying cards, payroll, and vendors. That is why Gemini is aiming GUSD at B2B settlement and treasury, where pain is acute and customers will pay for compliance and segregation.
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Going forward, Gemini’s upside comes from attaching GUSD to institutional money movement, not from reviving retail adoption. If Gemini can become the default place where hedge funds, treasurers, and crypto native businesses park dollars and settle trades, reserve income can grow into a revenue line that is steadier, higher margin, and less cyclical than exchange fees.