Databricks to Overtake Snowflake 2026
Databricks at $4B ARR growing 50% YoY
Databricks passing Snowflake is less about one quarter of faster growth and more about a market handoff from warehouse centric analytics to a broader data and AI platform. Databricks crossed a $4B revenue run rate in Q2 2025, up more than 50% YoY, while Snowflake finished fiscal 2026 at $4.47B in product revenue, up 29%. That gap means Databricks only needs to keep growing materially faster for one more year to move ahead on run rate.
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Snowflake built its lead on a simpler core job, storing data and letting analysts run SQL on it. Databricks started from heavier engineering workflows, then layered on SQL, ML tooling, model training, agent infrastructure, and now operational databases, which gives it more ways to expand spend inside the same account.
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The math is straightforward. Starting from roughly $4.0B for Databricks in August 2025 and $4.47B for Snowflake in the year ended January 31, 2026, a 50% growth path puts Databricks near $6B run rate within a year, while a high 20s growth path puts Snowflake closer to the mid $5B range.
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The more important signal is mix shift. Databricks has already said AI revenue exceeded a $1B run rate, and related research shows warehousing and AI are becoming major second engines beside the core platform. Snowflake is also adding AI features, but its reported growth is still anchored to the warehouse business it started with.
Going forward, the contest is turning into a race to own the full workflow from raw data to models to production applications. If Databricks keeps converting AI demand into new product lines faster than Snowflake can reaccelerate its core base, the revenue crossover becomes the first visible sign of a deeper platform consolidation around enterprise AI.