Dome's Viability Depends on Fragmentation

Dome only becomes durable infrastructure if prediction market liquidity spreads beyond the top two venues. Its product is most useful when a trader or app builder can get a meaningfully better price, deeper order book, or broader event coverage by combining venues, but that advantage shrinks if Polymarket and Kalshi already hold nearly all the tradable depth. In that world, developers can justify integrating the dominant venue directly, and the routing layer becomes less essential.

• Dome’s core mechanic is not creating liquidity, it is matching equivalent markets across venues and routing orders to the best book. That matters when the same event has fragmented liquidity across multiple platforms. If smaller venues have little depth, there is not much incremental liquidity to combine.
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• The current market already looks top heavy. Internal market context describes Polymarket and Kalshi as the biggest players, with weekly combined volume above $2B in October 2025, while Dome itself frames its thesis around a future long tail of regional and vertical specific markets that still overlap enough to aggregate.
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• This is the same reason dominant exchanges often reduce the need for middleware. If a builder mostly wants sports liquidity, and sports is already concentrated on Kalshi and Polymarket, the simplest path is to plug into those APIs directly, especially since both already offer their own developer tooling and distribution partnerships.
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The next phase depends on whether prediction markets look like crypto, with a long tail of active venues, or like a winner take most exchange market. If Robinhood, DraftKings, Coinbase, and regional operators build real liquidity in their own niches, Dome becomes the routing layer that stitches the market together. If not, it risks becoming a convenience wrapper around a duopoly.