Prediction Markets for Quant Funds and Treasuries
Dome
The real unlock is not more retail betting, it is turning event contracts into instruments that can slot into the same workflow as futures, options, and alt data. Dome already serves users doing backtesting, analytics, high frequency trading, and order routing across venues, which is exactly the plumbing quantitative funds need before they can treat prediction markets as something they can systematically model, trade, and hedge against other exposures.
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Today the market is still concentrated in power users, but that is how new tradable instruments often start. Dome estimates that on Polymarket, fewer than 8,000 heavy traders drove 80% of volume, and roughly 25% of Dome users already use its data for backtesting, analytics, or high frequency trading rather than basic app building.
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For quant funds, the product is not just a yes or no bet. It is a stream of prices that can be arbitraged across Kalshi and Polymarket, fed into models, and used to price related products. Dome is building market matching and smart order routing so a trader can hit the best price across multiple books instead of manually checking each venue.
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For treasury and risk teams, the key use case is hedging event exposure that sits outside normal rates or FX tools. Prediction markets already list contracts on weather and macro outcomes, and company teams can use those prices as live probabilities for things like storm risk, election risk, or policy scenarios that affect revenue, costs, or insurance losses.
If liquidity keeps deepening and the tooling stack matures, prediction markets will move from a retail curiosity to a desk level product. The winners will be the infrastructure companies that make these contracts easy to backtest, route, monitor, and plug into institutional risk systems, because that is what turns scattered event bets into a usable asset class.