Revenue
$29.00M
2023
Valuation
$650.00M
2023
Growth Rate (y/y)
50%
2023
Funding
$82.00M
2023
Valuation: $650.00M in 2023
In March 2023, Substack launched an equity crowdfunding campaign on WeFunder to raise $5M at a $585M pre-money valuation and 30x multiple on $20M in TTM revenue, a flat round from their 2021 Series B led by Andreessen Horowitz where they raised $65M at a 102x multiple.
Compare that to the New York Times which is valued at $6.41B—about 2.8x on revenue of $2.31B, or The Athletic, which was acquired for $550M after doing $65M revenue in 2021 for an 8.5x multiple.
Scenarios: $79M to $406M ARR by 2028
To evaluate Substack's potential future value, we analyze scenarios projecting annual recurring revenue (ARR) through 2028, incorporating various growth rates and industry multiples. These projections consider both the company's current trajectory and comparable valuations in the digital media landscape.
| 2023 Revenue ($M) | $29M | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 50.00% |
Substack's $29M revenue in 2023 reflects strong momentum with 50% year-over-year growth, though at a more modest pace compared to earlier years. This growth trajectory positions the company well in the digital media space, particularly among newsletter and content platform competitors.
| Multiple | Valuation |
|---|---|
| 1x | $29M |
| 5x | $143M |
| 10x | $285M |
| 15x | $428M |
| 25x | $713M |
Based on current revenue of $29M, valuations span from a conservative $29M at 1x to an ambitious $713M at 25x multiple. The higher-end valuation aligns with Substack's recent $585M pre-money valuation, though sits below the lofty 102x multiple from their 2021 Series B round.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $29M | $40M | $52M | $62M | $71M | $79M |
| 15.0% | $29M | $40M | $53M | $66M | $79M | $91M |
| 20.0% | $29M | $40M | $55M | $70M | $86M | $104M |
| 35.0% | $29M | $42M | $59M | $82M | $113M | $152M |
| 50.0% | $29M | $43M | $64M | $96M | $144M | $216M |
| 55.0% | $29M | $43M | $66M | $101M | $156M | $242M |
| 65.0% | $29M | $44M | $69M | $111M | $182M | $300M |
| 70.0% | $29M | $44M | $71M | $117M | $196M | $332M |
| 80.0% | $29M | $45M | $74M | $128M | $225M | $406M |
Revenue projections show potential outcomes ranging from $79M at 10% growth to $406M at 80% growth by 2028, representing a 2.7x to 14x increase from 2023's $29M baseline. More aggressive growth scenarios above 50% could position Substack as a major player in digital media.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 1x | 5x | 10x | 15x | 25x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $79M | $393M | $786M | $1.2B | $2B |
| 15.0% | $91M | $453M | $905M | $1.4B | $2.3B |
| 20.0% | $104M | $519M | $1B | $1.6B | $2.6B |
| 35.0% | $152M | $761M | $1.5B | $2.3B | $3.8B |
| 50.0% | $216M | $1.1B | $2.2B | $3.2B | $5.4B |
| 55.0% | $242M | $1.2B | $2.4B | $3.6B | $6B |
| 65.0% | $300M | $1.5B | $3B | $4.5B | $7.5B |
| 70.0% | $332M | $1.7B | $3.3B | $5B | $8.3B |
| 80.0% | $406M | $2B | $4.1B | $6.1B | $10.1B |
Projected 2028 valuations range from $79M at conservative growth/multiple assumptions to over $10B in aggressive scenarios. Mid-range scenarios with 35-50% growth and 10-15x multiples suggest potential valuations of $1.5-3.2B, positioning Substack competitively among established media companies.
Bear, Base, and Bull Cases: 5.5x, 7.2x, 9.5x
To evaluate Substack's potential trajectories, we examine three distinct scenarios reflecting different market conditions and execution outcomes. These cases - ranging from conservative growth amid market headwinds to accelerated expansion through successful platform scaling - provide structured insights into Substack's possible valuations and market position.
| Scenario | 2028 Growth Rate (%) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Bear 🐻 | 15% | 5.5 |
| Base 📈 | 35% | 7.2 |
| Bull 🚀 | 65% | 9.5 |
Growth projections range from a conservative 15% with a 5.5x multiple in the bear case to an ambitious 65% growth with a 9.5x multiple in the bull case. The base case assumes moderate 35% growth and a 7.2x multiple, reflecting balanced expectations for Substack's platform scaling and market penetration.
| Bear 🐻 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29M | $40M | $53M | $66M | $79M | $91M |
| Growth | 50.00% | 40.59% | 32.50% | 24.41% | 19.17% | 15% |
| Base 📈 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29M | $42M | $59M | $82M | $113M | $152M |
| Growth | 50.00% | 45.97% | 42.50% | 39.03% | 36.79% | 35% |
| Bull 🚀 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29M | $44M | $69M | $111M | $182M | $300M |
| Growth | 50.00% | 54.03% | 57.50% | 60.97% | 63.21% | 65% |
Our bear, base, and bull cases for Substack reflect varying scenarios of platform growth and market positioning, from deteriorating network effects to successful transformation into a luxury publishing network
- In the bear case, Substack's growth declines to 15% by 2028, resulting in a $498M valuation ($91M revenue on a 5.5x multiple)
- In the base case, Substack maintains 35% growth as a premium newsletter platform, reaching a $1.1B valuation ($152M revenue on a 7.2x multiple)
- In the bull case, Substack achieves 65% growth through successful expansion across multiple content formats, commanding a $2.8B valuation ($300M revenue on a 9.5x multiple).
| Scenario | 1. Bear 🐻 | 2. Base 📈 | 3. Bull 🚀 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Revenue | $29M | $29M | $29M |
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| 2023 Multiple | 5.5 | 7.2 | 9.5 |
| 2023 Valuation | $157M | $205M | $271M |
| 2028 Revenue | $91M | $152M | $300M |
| 2028 Growth Rate (%) | 15% | 35% | 65% |
| Multiple | 5.5 | 7.2 | 9.5 |
| 2028 Valuation | $498M | $1.1B | $2.8B |
The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on Substack's ability to retain top writers, maintain its premium positioning, and successfully expand beyond newsletters into a broader media network while managing writer burnout and platform competition risks.
- In the Bear case: Writer burnout and high-profile creator migrations to platforms with better economics (like Ghost or Beehiiv) lead to a deteriorating network effect, causing Substack to struggle maintaining its premium positioning and forcing it to compete purely as a commoditized newsletter tool.
- In the Base case: Substack maintains its position as the premium newsletter platform while gradually expanding its network effects through features like Chat and Recommendations, though without fully achieving its vision of becoming the definitive rebundled media network.
- In the Bull case: Substack successfully transforms from a newsletter platform into a full-fledged luxury publishing network across multiple content formats (newsletters, podcasts, video) and niches (sports, entertainment, politics), effectively becoming the modern equivalent of a decentralized New York Times with superior unit economics.
These final valuations present a range of outcomes for Substack, from a modest $498M in the bear case to $2.8B in the bull scenario. Even the conservative projection suggests meaningful growth, while the bull case would position Substack competitively against established media companies like The New York Times.
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