Note: All figures for private companies estimated as per publicly available data. All figure for public companies taken from public filings.

ManoMano has raised $708M from investors like General Atlantic, Dragoneer, and Temasek. It was last valued at $2.6B on a valuation/revenue multiple of 1.5x. ManoMano's revenue multiple comes in slightly above those of most other publicly listed DIY companies in Europe and the US, which have multiples less than 1x—though ManoMano is also growing the fastest out of all our comps. The revenue multiple for the brick and mortar DIY stores category has hovered around 1.4x over the last few years, however, the average multiple of online consumer marketplaces has dropped to 3.2x, from a high of 6.4x in 2020. When compared to the other online consumer marketplaces, ManoMano at 1.5x looks more attractively valued for future investors.

Note: Brick and mortar stores category includes Kingfisher brands, Hornbach, Home Depot, Tractor Supply, and Lowe’s. Online consumer marketplaces include Etsy, Ebay, Amazon, and Wayfair. 

To evaluate ManoMano's future potential, we've modeled several scenarios projecting the company's growth through 2026. These scenarios consider various growth rates and revenue multiples, taking into account both traditional DIY retail benchmarks and online marketplace valuations in the current market environment.

ManoMano achieved $1.89B in revenue for 2021, with impressive 44.43% year-over-year growth, demonstrating strong momentum in the European DIY ecommerce market. This growth rate significantly outpaces traditional brick-and-mortar competitors, though it represents a return to pre-COVID growth levels.

Based on ManoMano's 2021 revenue of $1.89B, potential valuations span from $1.9B at a conservative 1x multiple to $47.2B at an aggressive 25x multiple. The company's current $2.6B valuation at 1.5x suggests room for significant upside if it can achieve multiples closer to other online marketplaces.

Revenue projections through 2026 show potential outcomes ranging from $4.9B at a conservative 10% growth rate to $20.8B at an aggressive 70% growth rate. This represents significant upside from 2021's $1.9B revenue, particularly if ManoMano can maintain its strong growth trajectory.

Projected 2026 valuations range from $4.9B at the most conservative scenario (10% growth, 1x multiple) to $520.1B in the most aggressive case (70% growth, 25x multiple), highlighting significant potential upside from ManoMano's current $2.6B valuation if strong growth continues.

To provide a more nuanced valuation analysis, we've developed bear, base, and bull case scenarios using multiples of 6.5x, 8.5x, and 10.5x respectively. These scenarios reflect different market conditions and growth trajectories for ManoMano, considering both industry-specific challenges and opportunities in the European DIY e-commerce space.

Looking at the scenarios, even the conservative bear case assumes continued strong growth at 20% with a 6.5x multiple, while the bull case envisions aggressive 50% growth and a 10.5x multiple. The base case of 35% growth and 8.5x multiple represents a balanced view between these extremes.

Our bear, base, and bull cases for ManoMano reflect varying scenarios of market competition, growth sustainability, and business model evolution through 2026

The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on how ManoMano navigates competition from traditional retailers' online expansion, maintains its growth trajectory amid market pressures, and successfully develops new revenue streams through its B2B marketplace, fulfillment services, and advertising platform.

These final valuations present a wide range of potential outcomes for ManoMano. Even the bear case projects a substantial valuation of $41.8B in 2026, while the bull case at $141.7B would position ManoMano as a major player in the European DIY ecommerce market.