Revenue
$37.00M
2023
Valuation
$1.30B
2022
Growth Rate (y/y)
49%
2023
Funding
$165.70M
2022
Valuation: $1.30B in 2022
Linktree has raised a total of $165.7M from 3 rounds of fundraising. The lead investors on their Series C and Series B were Coatue and Index Ventures.
Scenarios: $129M to $551M ARR by 2028
To evaluate Linktree's future potential, we've developed multiple scenarios projecting annual recurring revenue (ARR) through 2028. These scenarios consider different growth trajectories and market conditions, providing a range of possible outcomes for the company's financial performance.
| 2023 ARR ($M) | $49M | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 46.22% |
With $49M in ARR and 46.22% growth in 2023, Linktree demonstrates strong momentum in the link-in-bio market. This growth rate, while moderating from previous years, remains robust and positions the company well against its numerous competitors in the creator economy space.
| Multiple | Valuation |
|---|---|
| 1x | $49M |
| 5x | $245M |
| 10x | $491M |
| 15x | $736M |
| 25x | $1.2B |
Based on current ARR of $49M, valuations span from $49M at a conservative 1x multiple to $1.2B at 25x. The higher multiple scenario aligns with Linktree's 2022 valuation, suggesting market expectations for continued strong growth in the creator economy space.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $49M | $67M | $86M | $103M | $117M | $129M |
| 15.0% | $49M | $68M | $88M | $109M | $129M | $149M |
| 20.0% | $49M | $68M | $91M | $116M | $142M | $171M |
| 30.0% | $49M | $70M | $96M | $129M | $170M | $222M |
| 45.0% | $49M | $72M | $104M | $152M | $220M | $319M |
| 50.0% | $49M | $72M | $107M | $159M | $239M | $358M |
| 55.0% | $49M | $73M | $110M | $168M | $258M | $400M |
| 65.0% | $49M | $74M | $116M | $185M | $301M | $496M |
| 70.0% | $49M | $75M | $118M | $194M | $324M | $551M |
Revenue projections span from $129M at a conservative 10% growth rate to $551M at an aggressive 70% growth rate by 2028, representing potential 2.6x to 11.2x growth from 2023's $49M ARR. This range reflects varying scenarios of market penetration and execution in the creator economy.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 1x | 5x | 10x | 15x | 25x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $129M | $646M | $1.3B | $1.9B | $3.2B |
| 15.0% | $149M | $744M | $1.5B | $2.2B | $3.7B |
| 20.0% | $171M | $854M | $1.7B | $2.6B | $4.3B |
| 30.0% | $222M | $1.1B | $2.2B | $3.3B | $5.5B |
| 45.0% | $319M | $1.6B | $3.2B | $4.8B | $8B |
| 50.0% | $358M | $1.8B | $3.6B | $5.4B | $8.9B |
| 55.0% | $400M | $2B | $4B | $6B | $10B |
| 65.0% | $496M | $2.5B | $5B | $7.4B | $12.4B |
| 70.0% | $551M | $2.8B | $5.5B | $8.3B | $13.8B |
Based on projected growth scenarios and multiple ranges, 2028 valuations span from $129M (10% growth, 1x multiple) to $13.8B (70% growth, 25x multiple), highlighting the significant upside potential while acknowledging the wide range of possible outcomes depending on Linktree's execution and market conditions.
Bear, Base, and Bull Cases: 5.5x, 7.5x, 9.5x
Building on our analysis, we've developed bear, base, and bull case scenarios applying multiples of 5.5x, 7.5x, and 9.5x respectively. These cases reflect varying market conditions, competitive dynamics, and execution outcomes that could influence Linktree's valuation trajectory through 2028.
| Scenario | 2028 Growth Rate (%) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Bear 🐻 | 20% | 5.5 |
| Base 📈 | 30% | 7.5 |
| Bull 🚀 | 45% | 9.5 |
Even in the conservative bear case with 20% growth, a 5.5x multiple reflects sustained market confidence in Linktree's business model. The bull case combines aggressive 45% growth with a 9.5x multiple, indicating strong potential for market leadership and expanded monetization in the creator economy.
| Bear 🐻 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $49M | $68M | $91M | $116M | $142M | $171M |
| Growth | 46.22% | 39.17% | 33.11% | 27.05% | 23.13% | 20% |
| Base 📈 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $49M | $70M | $96M | $129M | $170M | $222M |
| Growth | 46.22% | 41.86% | 38.11% | 34.36% | 31.93% | 30% |
| Bull 🚀 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $49M | $72M | $104M | $152M | $220M | $319M |
| Growth | 46.22% | 45.89% | 45.61% | 45.33% | 45.15% | 45% |
Our bear, base, and bull cases for Linktree depend primarily on how the creator economy evolves and how successfully the company maintains its market position
- In the bear case: Linktree reaches a $939M valuation with $171M revenue at a 5.5x multiple and 20% growth rate, reflecting competitive pressures and market erosion
- In the base case: Linktree achieves a $1.66B valuation with $222M revenue at a 7.5x multiple and 30% growth rate, maintaining steady market leadership
- In the bull case: Linktree attains a $3.03B valuation with $319M revenue at a 9.5x multiple and 45% growth rate, successfully transforming into a comprehensive creator platform.
| Scenario | 1. Bear 🐻 | 2. Base 📈 | 3. Bull 🚀 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 ARR | $49M | $49M | $49M |
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 46% | 46% | 46% |
| 2023 Multiple | 5.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 |
| 2023 Valuation | $270M | $368M | $466M |
| 2028 Revenue | $171M | $222M | $319M |
| 2028 Growth Rate (%) | 20% | 30% | 45% |
| Multiple | 5.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 |
| 2028 Valuation | $939M | $1.7B | $3B |
The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on how the creator economy evolves, whether Linktree can maintain its market leadership amid intense competition, and whether they successfully expand beyond link-in-bio into comprehensive creator tools and enterprise solutions.
- In the Bear case: The ongoing "creator recession" continues to deepen, while increased competition from both 40+ link-in-bio competitors and social media platforms' native monetization tools causes Linktree's growth to stall and its market position to erode.
- In the Base case: Linktree maintains its market leadership in the link-in-bio space and successfully expands into adjacent creator tools, though faces moderate competitive pressure that keeps growth and expansion at sustainable but not explosive levels.
- In the Bull case: Linktree successfully transforms into a comprehensive vertical SaaS platform for creators with multiple revenue streams (including transaction-based revenue), while simultaneously capturing the "enterprise" creator segment with premium offerings similar to Shopify Plus.
These final valuations present a range of outcomes for Linktree, from a bear case of $939M to a bull case of $3B in 2028. Even the conservative scenario suggests steady growth, while the bull case positions Linktree as a dominant force in the creator economy.
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