Revenue
$982.70M
2021
Valuation
$2.00B
2021
Growth Rate (y/y)
32%
2021
Funding
$143.00M
2021
Valuation: $2.00B in 2021
Note: Revenue, growth rate, and valuation as per publicly available information. Size of the bubble indicates valuation. Vertical axis is in log scale for visual clarity.
Justworks has raised $143M from investors such as FirstMark Capital, Union Square Ventures, and Bain Capital. Its last private valuation was $1.43B, and it filed an S-1 to go public in Jan 2022 at a valuation of $2B.
This puts its valuation to revenue multiple at 2x, which is much lower than other HR tech companies. Justworks’s revenue mix makes its business model akin to an insurance distributor than a SaaS company and it is getting valued as such.
TriNet, which is also a PEO company, has a multiple of 1.1x as insurance-related low margin revenue forms 86% of its top line. Paycom, with 98% SaaS revenue has 19.8x multiple and Paylocity with 93% SaaS revenue has 18.9x multiple.
Scenarios: $2.2B to $6.1B ARR by 2026
To evaluate Justworks's future potential, we analyze multiple scenarios projecting the company's growth from 2021 to 2026. These scenarios consider various growth rates and revenue multiples, taking into account both its PEO business model and the broader HR tech market dynamics.
| 2021 Revenue ($M) | $982M | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Growth Rate (%) | 32.27% |
Justworks demonstrated strong performance with $982M in revenue for 2021, achieving a robust 32.27% growth rate. This growth trajectory, while healthy, reflects its position as a mature PEO provider balancing both insurance-related and SaaS revenue streams.
| Multiple | Valuation |
|---|---|
| 1x | $982M |
| 5x | $4.9B |
| 10x | $9.8B |
| 15x | $14.7B |
| 25x | $24.6B |
Given Justworks's current revenue, valuations span from a conservative $982M at 1x multiple to $24.6B at 25x multiple. The lower multiples reflect its PEO/insurance distributor model, while higher multiples would position it more in line with pure-play SaaS HR tech companies like Paycom and Paylocity.
| 2026 Growth Rate | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $982M | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $2B | $2.2B |
| 13.0% | $982M | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.1B | $2.4B |
| 17.0% | $982M | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.3B | $2.6B |
| 23.0% | $982M | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2B | $2.5B | $3.1B |
| 30.0% | $982M | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.2B | $2.9B | $3.8B |
| 34.0% | $982M | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.3B | $3.1B | $4.2B |
| 39.0% | $982M | $1.3B | $1.8B | $2.5B | $3.4B | $4.7B |
| 44.0% | $982M | $1.3B | $1.8B | $2.6B | $3.7B | $5.3B |
| 50.0% | $982M | $1.3B | $1.9B | $2.8B | $4.1B | $6.1B |
Revenue projections span from $2.2B to $6.1B by 2026, reflecting scenarios from conservative 10% growth to aggressive 50% growth rates. Even at the lowest projected growth rate, revenue more than doubles from 2021, while the most optimistic scenario shows a 6.2x increase over the five-year period.
| 2026 Growth Rate | 1x | 5x | 10x | 15x | 25x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $2.2B | $10.8B | $21.6B | $32.4B | $54B |
| 13.0% | $2.4B | $11.8B | $23.6B | $35.4B | $58.9B |
| 17.0% | $2.6B | $13.2B | $26.4B | $39.6B | $66B |
| 23.0% | $3.1B | $15.6B | $31.2B | $46.7B | $77.9B |
| 30.0% | $3.8B | $18.8B | $37.5B | $56.3B | $93.8B |
| 34.0% | $4.2B | $20.8B | $41.5B | $62.3B | $103.9B |
| 39.0% | $4.7B | $23.5B | $47.1B | $70.6B | $117.7B |
| 44.0% | $5.3B | $26.6B | $53.1B | $79.7B | $132.8B |
| 50.0% | $6.1B | $30.6B | $61.2B | $91.8B | $153B |
Projected 2026 valuations range from $2.2B at conservative growth/multiple assumptions (10% growth, 1x) to $153B under aggressive scenarios (50% growth, 25x). Even modest growth scenarios suggest significant upside from the 2021 $2B valuation, while ambitious projections position Justworks as a potential industry leader.
Bear, Base, and Bull Cases: 5.5x, 7.5x, 9.5x
To assess Justworks's potential trajectories, we analyze three distinct scenarios based on market dynamics and growth execution. The bear case reflects conservative PEO multiples, while the base case assumes successful hybrid positioning, and the bull case anticipates strong SaaS-like characteristics and market leadership.
| Scenario | 2026 Growth Rate (%) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Bear 🐻 | 15% | 5.5 |
| Base 📈 | 25% | 7.5 |
| Bull 🚀 | 40% | 9.5 |
Growth projections span from conservative to ambitious, with the bear case assuming 15% growth and a 5.5x multiple reflecting PEO-like valuations, while the bull case targets 40% growth and a 9.5x multiple based on successful SaaS transformation. The base case balances these extremes with 25% growth and a 7.5x multiple.
| Bear 🐻 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $982M | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.5B |
| Growth | 32.27% | 27.63% | 23.64% | 19.65% | 17.06% | 15% |
| Base 📈 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $982M | $1.3B | $1.6B | $2.1B | $2.6B | $3.3B |
| Growth | 32.27% | 30.32% | 28.64% | 26.96% | 25.87% | 25% |
| Bull 🚀 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $982M | $1.3B | $1.8B | $2.5B | $3.4B | $4.8B |
| Growth | 32.27% | 34.35% | 36.14% | 37.92% | 39.08% | 40% |
Our bear, base, and bull cases for Justworks reflect different trajectories based on its ability to expand beyond its core PEO business and capture higher-margin revenue streams
- In the bear case, Justworks reaches a $13.7B valuation by 2026 with $2.5B revenue growing at 15% and maintaining a PEO-like 5.5x multiple due to continued dependence on insurance revenue
- In the base case, Justworks achieves a $24.7B valuation with $3.3B revenue growing at 25% and commanding a 7.5x multiple through balanced growth in both insurance and SaaS offerings
- In the bull case, Justworks reaches a $45.8B valuation with $4.8B revenue growing at 40% and earning a 9.5x multiple through successful expansion into high-margin fintech products and global payroll solutions.
| Scenario | 1. Bear 🐻 | 2. Base 📈 | 3. Bull 🚀 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Revenue | $982M | $982M | $982M |
| 2021 Growth Rate (%) | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| 2021 Multiple | 5.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 |
| 2021 Valuation | $5.4B | $7.4B | $9.3B |
| 2026 Revenue | $2.5B | $3.3B | $4.8B |
| 2026 Growth Rate (%) | 15% | 25% | 40% |
| Multiple | 5.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 |
| 2026 Valuation | $13.7B | $24.7B | $45.8B |
The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on Justworks's ability to expand beyond insurance revenue, successfully launch higher-margin fintech products, maintain growth in the competitive HR tech landscape, and leverage its PEO model while building out its SaaS offerings.
- In the Bear case: Justworks remains predominantly dependent on its low-margin insurance revenue (90% of revenue), fails to meaningfully expand its high-margin SaaS offerings, and faces increasing competition from well-funded competitors like Gusto and Rippling, justifying a lower 5.5x multiple.
- In the Base case: Justworks successfully maintains its current growth trajectory and gradually expands its SaaS revenue mix while leveraging its PEO model to offer new financial services, but still operates in a competitive landscape with mixed margins, supporting a 7.5x multiple.
- In the Bull case: Justworks successfully expands into higher-margin fintech products, captures significant market share in the growing global payroll space, and meaningfully increases its SaaS revenue contribution while maintaining its insurance business as a strategic advantage, warranting a 9.5x multiple.
These final valuations present a significant range for Justworks. Even the bear case projects substantial growth to $13.7B by 2026, while the bull case at $45.8B would position Justworks as a major player in HR tech, driven by successful expansion beyond its PEO foundations.
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