Note: All data as per publicly available information. Size of the bubble indicates valuation. Horizontal axis is in log scale for visual clarity.

Fivetran has raised $728M from investors such as Andreessen Horowitz, Matrix Partners, and General Catalyst. Its last private valuation was $5.6B, with a revenue multiple of 59x. Companies in the data integration segment have much lower revenue multiples, such as Informatica at 3.7x, Matillion at 26x, and Talend at 7.3x. Fivetran’s high revenue multiple reflects its 100% YoY growth and its wedge into the large enterprise market through HVR's acquisition. Modern data stack companies DBT Labs (280x) and Airbyte (1500x) have very high revenue multiples as investors are pouring money into startups commercializing open-source software after the success of Databricks.

To evaluate Fivetran's future potential, we've developed scenarios projecting annual recurring revenue (ARR) through 2028. These projections consider various growth trajectories and market conditions, factoring in the company's current momentum in the data integration space and competitive dynamics.

At $245M ARR in 2023, Fivetran demonstrates strong market traction in the data integration space. The growth trajectory builds upon its 2021-2022 CAGR of 77%, reflecting successful enterprise expansion through the HVR acquisition and increasing demand for automated data pipeline solutions.

Given Fivetran's current ARR of $245M, valuations span from $245M at 1x to $6.1B at 25x revenue multiple. The 25x scenario approaches Fivetran's last private valuation, while lower multiples align more closely with public market comparables like Informatica (3.7x) and Talend (7.3x).

Projected revenue scenarios range from flat growth at $245M to aggressive expansion reaching $459M by 2028, representing up to an 87% increase from 2023 levels. The 20% growth scenario suggests strong market penetration potential, while the 1% scenario reflects a more conservative outlook.

Based on projected 2028 growth scenarios, valuations range from $253M at the most conservative estimate (1% growth, 1x multiple) to $11.5B in an aggressive growth case (20% growth, 25x multiple), reflecting the significant variance in potential outcomes depending on market conditions and execution.

To sharpen our analysis, we've developed bear, base, and bull case scenarios reflecting different market multiples for Fivetran. These cases consider key factors including competitive dynamics, market penetration rates, enterprise adoption patterns, and overall data integration industry growth trends.

These cases reflect Fivetran's strong market position, with even the conservative bear case projecting 15% growth and an 8.5x multiple. The base and bull scenarios of 25-35% growth with 11.5-14.5x multiples align with the company's enterprise expansion trajectory and data integration market potential.

Our bear, base, and bull cases for Fivetran reflect varying scenarios of market penetration and competitive dynamics in the data integration space

The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on how Fivetran navigates competitive pressures from native integrations, whether they can successfully expand their enterprise presence through HVR, and their ability to maintain technical leadership while expanding into adjacent services in the modern data stack.

These final valuations present a moderate range of potential outcomes for Fivetran. The bear case projects a valuation of $3.4B, while the base case at $6.1B aligns with its last private round. The bull case at $10.1B would position Fivetran as a dominant data integration leader.