Revenue
$165.00M
2023
Valuation
$2.10B
2023
Growth Rate (y/y)
22%
2023
Valuation: $2.10B in 2023
Docker has raised $165 million since the Mirantis deal closed in November 2019 from Tribe Capital, Benchmark, Insight Partners, and Bain Capital. Docker is valued at $2.1B, implying a revenue multiple of ~15x.
Scenarios: $272M to $717M ARR by 2028
To evaluate Docker's future potential, we've modeled multiple scenarios projecting annual recurring revenue (ARR) through 2028. These scenarios incorporate varying growth rates and market conditions to estimate potential outcomes, with projected ARR ranging from $272M to $717M.
| 2023 ARR ($M) | $165M | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 22.22% |
Docker's current ARR of $165M and 22.22% growth rate demonstrate solid commercial traction, though more moderate than its explosive growth in earlier years. This steady expansion reflects successful monetization of its developer tools and growing enterprise adoption.
| Multiple | Valuation |
|---|---|
| 1x | $165M |
| 5x | $825M |
| 10x | $1.6B |
| 15x | $2.5B |
| 25x | $4.1B |
Based on Docker's current $165M ARR, valuations span from $165M at a conservative 1x multiple to $4.1B at an ambitious 25x multiple. The company's actual $2.1B valuation sits near the 15x multiple mark, suggesting the market views Docker's growth potential and market position favorably.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $165M | $194M | $220M | $242M | $259M | $272M |
| 7.0% | $165M | $195M | $223M | $248M | $270M | $289M |
| 10.0% | $165M | $196M | $228M | $258M | $288M | $316M |
| 14.0% | $165M | $198M | $234M | $272M | $313M | $356M |
| 20.0% | $165M | $201M | $243M | $293M | $353M | $423M |
| 24.0% | $165M | $202M | $249M | $308M | $381M | $473M |
| 28.0% | $165M | $204M | $256M | $323M | $411M | $527M |
| 34.0% | $165M | $207M | $265M | $347M | $460M | $616M |
| 40.0% | $165M | $210M | $275M | $372M | $512M | $717M |
Revenue projections through 2028 span from $272M at a conservative 5% growth rate to $717M with aggressive 40% growth, representing a 1.6x to 4.3x increase from 2023's $165M ARR. This range reflects varying scenarios of market penetration and product adoption success.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 1x | 5x | 10x | 15x | 25x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $272M | $1.4B | $2.7B | $4.1B | $6.8B |
| 7.0% | $289M | $1.4B | $2.9B | $4.3B | $7.2B |
| 10.0% | $316M | $1.6B | $3.2B | $4.7B | $7.9B |
| 14.0% | $356M | $1.8B | $3.6B | $5.3B | $8.9B |
| 20.0% | $423M | $2.1B | $4.2B | $6.3B | $10.6B |
| 24.0% | $473M | $2.4B | $4.7B | $7.1B | $11.8B |
| 28.0% | $527M | $2.6B | $5.3B | $7.9B | $13.2B |
| 34.0% | $616M | $3.1B | $6.2B | $9.2B | $15.4B |
| 40.0% | $717M | $3.6B | $7.2B | $10.8B | $17.9B |
At various growth scenarios and multiples, Docker's 2028 valuations range from $272M (5% growth, 1x multiple) to $17.9B (40% growth, 25x multiple), reflecting potential outcomes from modest market penetration to dominant developer platform status. Achieving higher valuations depends on successful enterprise adoption and continued product innovation.
Bear, Base, and Bull Cases: 8.5x, 11.5x, 14.5x
To anchor our analysis, we've developed bear (8.5x), base (11.5x), and bull (14.5x) case scenarios that reflect Docker's potential trajectories. These multiples incorporate various market conditions, competitive dynamics, and execution factors that could influence Docker's growth and market perception.
| Scenario | 2028 Growth Rate (%) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Bear 🐻 | 15% | 8.5 |
| Base 📈 | 20% | 11.5 |
| Bull 🚀 | 30% | 14.5 |
Growth assumptions range from a conservative 15% in the bear case to an ambitious 30% in the bull case, with corresponding multiples of 8.5x to 14.5x. These scenarios reflect varying degrees of Docker's success in enterprise adoption, market penetration, and competitive positioning through 2028.
| Bear 🐻 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $165M | $198M | $235M | $275M | $319M | $367M |
| Growth | 22.22% | 20.28% | 18.61% | 16.94% | 15.86% | 15% |
| Base 📈 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $165M | $201M | $243M | $293M | $353M | $423M |
| Growth | 22.22% | 21.62% | 21.11% | 20.60% | 20.26% | 20% |
| Bull 🚀 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $165M | $205M | $259M | $331M | $427M | $555M |
| Growth | 22.22% | 24.31% | 26.11% | 27.91% | 29.07% | 30% |
Our bear, base, and bull cases for Docker reflect varying scenarios of market penetration, competitive dynamics, and growth sustainability through 2028
- In the bear case: Docker reaches a $3.1B valuation with $367M revenue at an 8.5x multiple as growth declines to 15%
- In the base case: Docker achieves a $4.9B valuation with $423M revenue at an 11.5x multiple while maintaining 20% growth
- In the bull case: Docker attains an $8.1B valuation with $555M revenue at a 14.5x multiple while accelerating to 30% growth.
| Scenario | 1. Bear 🐻 | 2. Base 📈 | 3. Bull 🚀 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 ARR | $165M | $165M | $165M |
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| 2023 Multiple | 8.5 | 11.5 | 14.5 |
| 2023 Valuation | $1.4B | $1.9B | $2.4B |
| 2028 Revenue | $367M | $423M | $555M |
| 2028 Growth Rate (%) | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Multiple | 8.5 | 11.5 | 14.5 |
| 2028 Valuation | $3.1B | $4.9B | $8.1B |
The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on Docker's ability to convert its large free user base to paid tiers, maintain competitive advantage against free alternatives, and successfully expand into adjacent technologies while growing enterprise adoption in an evolving containerization market.
- In the Bear case: Docker struggles to convert more of its 15M users to paid tiers amid increasing competition from free alternatives like Podman and Buildah, while cost-conscious enterprises look to reduce spending during economic uncertainty.
- In the Base case: Docker maintains its strong position in the container space and successfully monetizes its large user base by converting 15-20% of users to paid tiers while expanding its Docker Desktop functionality, particularly in the Linux market.
- In the Bull case: Docker leverages its dominant position in containerization to expand into adjacent technologies like WebAssembly, significantly grows its paying customer base beyond 10%, and becomes the de facto platform for all forms of code deployment and infrastructure management.
These final valuations present a range of outcomes for Docker, from a modest $3.1B in the bear case to $8.1B in the bull case by 2028. Even the conservative projection suggests steady growth, while the bull case would establish Docker as a dominant force in developer tooling.
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