We put 2023 growth at 25%, based on evidence of meaningful deceleration at AA, as well as a similar growth-deceleration trajectory at RPA bellwether UiPath in 2023.
While still widely adopted, RPA faces some headwinds from AI-based approaches. While not always direct replacements/substitutes for each other or in direct competition in automation, we do see some erosion of RPA uptake/volume from this direction.
Re: growth in 2024: For 2024 we'd expect a continued deceleration in line with UIPath's deceleration given the overall RPA market slowing down. Overall, probably something like 15-20% YoY ARR growth.
Re: exit: They did deep layoffs in 2023. It does look like they're potentially trying to rightsize, get profitable, and most probable: make themselves more sellable for a big strategic—Salesforce, Workday, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, IBM are all potential buyers (several of which are already partnered with AA). What those companies would likely want to do is basically acquire AA for its ~1000 odd enterprise customer relationships.

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