Chobani Poised To Overtake Oatly

This is less about oat milk demand weakening and more about the category leader losing the muscle to keep winning shelf space. Refrigerated oat milk is won in grocery coolers, where brands need steady in stock performance, trade spending, and new product support. Chobani already has a large refrigerated footprint through yogurt and creamers, so if Oatly cuts back on distribution and marketing, Chobani can take more facings with a product line that buyers already know fits the dairy case.

• Chobani launched oat milk in 2019 and sells multiple refrigerated SKUs including Original, Extra Creamy, Vanilla, Chocolate, and Barista Edition. That matters because retailers usually expand the brand that can fill more doors, flavors, and use cases, from cereal and smoothies to home espresso.
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• Oatly still has strong brand recognition, but its financial position has weakened sharply. Its market value fell about 95% from the 2021 IPO peak, it traded around 0.4x 2025 revenue, and North America revenue was down 6.8% year over year in Q2 2025, all signs of a company with less room to outspend competitors at the shelf.
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• Chobani has an advantage that Califia and Oatly do not. It already sells into about 95,000 refrigerated retail locations and can bundle oat milk with yogurt and creamers under one buyer relationship. That makes oat milk an easier add on for a retailer than bringing in a stand alone plant milk brand.
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The next step is a share shift from specialist brands toward broader refrigerated food platforms. If Chobani keeps adding capacity and using its dairy case relationships to win more space, oat milk can become another staple line inside its breakfast and coffee system, rather than a separate bet that has to stand on branding alone.