Platforms Embed Prediction Markets

This is the shift from prediction markets as a supplier relationship to prediction markets as a core product surface. Robinhood used Kalshi to prove demand, then moved to own a licensed venue itself. That playbook is attractive because the platform that owns the market keeps the user session, the order flow, the data on what people trade, and more of the fee pool, instead of handing those economics to an upstream exchange.1 2 3 4

• Robinhood is the clearest example. It launched a prediction markets hub with Kalshi in March 2025, then announced a joint venture to acquire MIAXdx, with the deal closing on January 20, 2026. By 2025, prediction markets had already become Robinhood's fastest growing business line, which made vertical ownership the logical next step.1 5 6
• Sportsbooks are following the same path. DraftKings acquired Railbird in October 2025 to get a federally licensed exchange rather than stay dependent on another operator's rails. In sports, owning the market matters because the contract sits next to odds, parlay building, wallet funding, and live engagement during games.2 4
• This creates a more fragmented market structure under the hood, even if the front end looks simpler to users. Research on Dome shows platforms are already diverging by distribution channel, geography, and category focus, which opens room for aggregators and routers that stitch liquidity back together across Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and specialist apps.3 7

The next phase is a land grab by distribution owners. Brokerages, sportsbooks, crypto exchanges, and large consumer apps will keep embedding their own market venues so event contracts feel native inside the app. That pushes standalone exchanges toward an infrastructure role, where winning means supplying liquidity and licensing to many surfaces at once, not just attracting traffic to a single destination.3 4 7