Coinbase Following Robinhood's Trajectory

This points to distribution partners turning into exchange owners once prediction markets prove they can drive real volume. Robinhood followed that path by first plugging Kalshi into its app, then securing its own licensed venue. Coinbase already has the same core pieces, a large retail audience, a CFTC regulated derivatives exchange, an FCM, and now a newly approved clearinghouse, so the jump from reseller to venue operator is structurally plausible, not hypothetical.1 2 3 4 5 6

• Robinhood provides the clearest template. It launched prediction markets through Kalshi, then its joint venture with Susquehanna closed the MIAXdx acquisition on January 20, 2026, giving it a CFTC licensed DCM, DCO, and SEF. That changed Robinhood from customer acquisition for Kalshi into a direct market operator.1 4 6
• Coinbase is already closer to that end state than most partners. Coinbase launched prediction markets with Kalshi, but it also already operates Coinbase Derivatives as a CFTC designated contract market, runs Coinbase Financial Markets as an FCM, and won CFTC approval for Coinbase Clearing in September 2026. That is much of the venue stack under one roof.2 3 5 7
• The broader market is moving the same way. Research across the category shows sportsbooks, brokers, and crypto exchanges increasingly want to own the exchange layer because owning the venue means owning listing, matching, clearing economics, and the customer relationship, instead of sharing fees with Kalshi as an infrastructure partner.4 7

The next phase is likely a split market where Kalshi remains the liquidity engine for some partners, while the largest distributors peel off into their own venues. If Coinbase follows Robinhood, prediction markets will look less like a single network and more like options or crypto, with multiple licensed venues competing for order flow, listings, and market makers.2 4 5 7