Race to Secure TRISO Permits and Customers
Valar Atomics
This market is being won less by reactor design slides and more by control of the bottlenecks that let a project actually get built. For HTGR developers, the scarce pieces are qualified TRISO fuel, a live regulatory path, and a real first customer that can absorb power or heat on site. X-energy already has all three in more mature form, while Valar is trying to lock them down at once through in house fuel, DOE backed testing, and a gigasite model aimed at data centers and industrial plants.
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Fuel matters because HTGRs cannot ship without it, and commercial TRISO capacity is still scarce. X-energy's TRISO-X received an NRC fuel facility license in February 2026. BWXT launched BWXT Advanced Fuels in August 2025, and Standard Nuclear was selected by DOE to expand TRISO fabrication, which means fuel access is becoming a competitive gate for the whole category, not just Valar.
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Regulatory progress is the second gate. X-energy's Dow project has an NRC construction permit application under review, and Kairos already holds Hermes 2 construction permits plus a Google deal for up to 500 MW by 2035. That creates a concrete credibility gap, because large buyers prefer developers that can show an active docket, a signed site, and a path to first electrons.
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Anchor customers are not just revenue, they are proof that a reactor has a home before it exists. Dow, Google, Meta, and Equinix have already lined up with rival developers, while Valar is positioning for the same kind of colocated campus load through data centers, refineries, hydrogen plants, and other users that need power and heat behind the meter.
The next phase of advanced nuclear will look more like a land grab for fuel lines, permits, and campus customers than a pure technology race. Developers that secure those inputs first will set the default supply chain and buying pattern for everyone else, and companies still proving hardware will face a steadily higher bar to catch up.