MiniMax and Private AI Valuation Gap

The valuation gap shows that public markets are already pricing MiniMax like a software company with visible revenue, while private investors are still pricing DeepSeek and Moonshot like scarce frontier model assets. MiniMax had about $800M of annualized revenue by August 2026 and traded near $8.2B in mid October, around 10x. DeepSeek and Moonshot were discussed around $75B and $50B, implying much steeper multiples against their reported revenue bases.1 2 3 4 5 6

• MiniMax has crossed into a different valuation regime because its numbers are public and updated. The company disclosed $116.6M of first half 2026 revenue, above its full year 2025 revenue of $79.0M, and its HKEX listing makes the market cap observable day to day.1 2 3
• DeepSeek looks expensive on revenue because investors are paying for model leadership and strategic scarcity. Reporting around its ongoing round put the company near a 500 billion yuan, about $75B, valuation, while revenue was described as nearing a $500M annualized run rate and driven mostly by API usage.4 5
• Moonshot sits between the two. Its reported $50B valuation suggests investors are valuing Kimi less on current cash flow and more on the option value of turning a leading Chinese consumer AI product into a broader agent and productivity platform, ahead of a possible Hong Kong IPO.6 7

Going forward, the key question is whether private leaders can grow revenue fast enough to compress toward MiniMax like multiples before listing. If they do, these prices will start to look earned. If not, public trading will likely reset frontier model valuations closer to revenue reality.1 4 6