Novig must win on sports execution

The real wedge in sports prediction markets is not having only sports, it is making sports trading feel easier, deeper, and cheaper every minute a game is live. Kalshi and Polymarket already pull sports traders in through bigger umbrellas that also include politics, crypto, and economic events. That means Novig has to win on the actual sports workflow, with sharper prices, more visible book depth, faster fills, and market formats sports bettors use every day, not just by narrowing its catalog.1 2 3 4 5 6

• Sports already supplies most of the liquidity in the category. Kalshi was about 75% sports in 2025 and roughly 80% by mid 2026, while Polymarket was around 40% to 50% sports. A sports only product is entering the busiest lane of the market, not an empty niche.3 4 5
• What traders actually value is execution quality. Aggregators like Dome exist because the same Bulls Lakers type market can sit on multiple venues at once, and traders want one screen with the best price and the deepest available liquidity routed in the background. That is the product bar Novig is competing against.4
• Broader rivals have extra acquisition loops. A user can come to Kalshi for Fed cuts, or to Polymarket for politics, then stay to trade the NBA that night. Kalshi has also layered distribution through partners like Robinhood, Coinbase, Interactive Brokers, and Webull, which lowers its customer acquisition burden versus a standalone sports specialist.2 5 6

The next step is likely a split between generalist liquidity hubs and specialists that feel closer to great sportsbooks. Novig’s path is to become the best place to trade a game, with cleaner pricing, better in play depth, and sports native market design like spreads, totals, props, and combinations. If it does that, specialization becomes an advantage instead of a limitation.1 4 6