Novig's Cost of Durable Liquidity

The core question for Novig is not whether it can spark trading activity, but whether it can keep enough real two sided liquidity on the book without paying away most of the economics. In an exchange model, users can arrive through free trading and promotions, but they only stay if they reliably see tight prices, enough size, and fast fills. That means Novig has to fund market making and customer acquisition before those users become a durable revenue base.1 2 3 4

• Novig says fee bearing revenue only appears when qualifying trades execute, while eligible liquidity providers can receive maker credits. That means visible order book depth can improve the product without creating matching revenue, and can even come with an added cost.1 2
• This is a common exchange tradeoff. Kalshi monetizes matched trades with a variable fee schedule and also runs maker fees and market maker programs to shape liquidity. The basic pattern is that exchanges often have to subsidize book quality first, then earn on downstream trading flow.3 4 5
• In sports prediction markets, traders can compare odds across Novig, Kalshi, Polymarket, and traditional sportsbooks. If Novig shows wider spreads or less size at the posted price, fee free access alone is unlikely to hold active users, because execution quality is the product they actually feel.1 6 7

Going forward, the winners in sports exchanges are likely to be the venues that turn subsidized liquidity into habit. If Novig can build a book that feels consistently tradeable without permanently overpaying makers and promotions, it can compound into repeat volume. If not, activity can rise faster than retained revenue, and scale becomes expensive rather than defensible.1 2 3 6 7