Note: All figures as per publicly available information.

Swile has raised $328M through 5 funding rounds, valuing the company at $1B with a valuation/revenue multiple of 91x. Some of its notable investors include SoftBank, Index Ventures, Eurazeo, and Headline.

Swile is richly valued compared to other employee benefits companies such as Edenred (revenue multiple: 7x) and Sodexo (0.6x). However, its multiple is comparable to other VC-funded fintechs like Ramp (81x), Brex (38x), Revolut (65x), and hrtechs like Rippling (208x) and Gusto (36.5x). 

Swile's last funding round was in October 2021, when the fintech multiples were much higher. As the market has become tougher in the last six months, many fintechs have lost substantial value. Publicly listed consumer fintechs’ revenue multiple has dropped by two-thirds to 4.4x. Even privately held fintechs are raising new rounds at substantial discounts. Klarna raised a new round at an 85% discount to its earlier valuation of $45B, and Stripe reduced its valuation by 30%.

Public consumer fintech includes Robinhood, Lending Club, Nubank, Paypal, Block, SoFi, Coinbase, Affirm, and Dave.

Public employee benefits companies include Edenred, Sodexo, and Wex.

To evaluate Swile's future potential, we've developed scenarios projecting annual recurring revenue (ARR) through 2028. These projections consider various growth trajectories and market conditions, factoring in both the current fintech market dynamics and the company's position in the employee benefits sector.

Based on current ARR of $195M, Swile shows strong revenue momentum following its strategic Bimpli acquisition. This represents a significant jump from its 2021 ARR of €20M, positioning the company for continued expansion in the employee benefits space.

Based on Swile's current ARR of $195M, valuations range from $195M at a conservative 1x multiple to $4.9B at 25x. While the 5x multiple of $977M aligns with its last known valuation, current market conditions for fintechs suggest more modest multiples may be appropriate.

Revenue projections through 2028 show scenarios ranging from flat growth at $195M to 20% annual growth reaching $366M. The conservative case reflects market stabilization, while the aggressive growth path assumes successful expansion in Brazil and new product adoption across the customer base.

Looking at 2028 projections, valuations range from $202M at a conservative 1x multiple with 1% growth to $9.2B at an aggressive 25x multiple with 20% growth. The spread reflects both execution risk and uncertainty around appropriate valuation multiples in the evolving fintech landscape.

To provide a nuanced valuation outlook, we've developed bear, base, and bull case scenarios using multiples of 4.5x, 6.5x, and 8.5x respectively. These scenarios reflect varying market conditions, competitive dynamics, and Swile's potential execution outcomes in both core and expansion markets.

Growth projections range from a conservative 15% with 4.5x multiple in the bear case to an ambitious 35% with 8.5x multiple in the bull scenario. Even the bear case multiple reflects optimism about Swile's market position, while the bull case assumes successful execution across core markets and new verticals.

Our bear, base, and bull cases for Swile reflect different scenarios of market penetration, competitive dynamics, and expansion success

The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on regulatory dynamics in France, Swile's ability to execute on its multi-product strategy, and whether it can successfully expand beyond core employee benefits into broader fintech services while maintaining its competitive advantage against modernizing incumbents.

The valuation scenarios present a range of potential outcomes for Swile, from $1.4B in the bear case to $4.7B in the bull case by 2028. Even the conservative projection suggests modest growth, while the optimistic case positions Swile as a significant player in the fintech landscape.