Stripe’s last priced round valued them at $95 billion in March 2021. That makes them the most valuable of the primary B2B payment processors, alongside Adyen and Checkout.com. While Adyen is roughly comparable to Stripe when it comes to payments volumes (Stripe is at $640 billion per year while Adyen is at $571 billion per year), Stripe has a much larger ecosystem of other products and services from which it derives both revenue and customer stickiness. Adyen, meanwhile, is starting to see Checkout.com eat up some of its business in the mid-market—Checkout.com, while much newer than Adyen, is at $225 bilion in yearly transaction volume and growing at 75% year-over-year, faster than Adyen.

To evaluate Stripe's future valuation, we'll examine multiple scenarios projecting growth from 2023 to 2028. These scenarios consider various factors including market dynamics, competitive pressures, and potential expansion of Stripe's product ecosystem, with revenue projections ranging from $36B to $103B ARR.

Current revenue of $18B and 25% growth rate demonstrate Stripe's continued market strength, though growth has moderated from previous years' rapid expansion. This positions them well among B2B payment processors while reflecting a maturing business in the competitive fintech landscape.

Based on $18B revenue, valuations span from $18B at a conservative 1x multiple to $450B at an aggressive 25x multiple. The 5x multiple of $90B aligns closely with Stripe's last priced round of $95B, while higher multiples reflect potential value of their expanding ecosystem and market position.

Revenue projections show potential outcomes ranging from $36B at a conservative 10% growth rate to $103B at an ambitious 50% growth rate by 2028. This represents a 2x to 5.7x increase from 2023's $18B baseline, reflecting varying scenarios of market penetration and ecosystem expansion success.

Valuation projections range from $36B at the most conservative scenario (10% growth, 1x multiple) to $2.6T at the most aggressive (50% growth, 25x multiple), with moderate growth scenarios of 20-30% suggesting potential valuations between $500B-$900B at standard industry multiples.

To provide comprehensive valuation insights, we've developed bear, base, and bull case scenarios applying multiples of 4.5x, 7.0x, and 10.0x respectively. These cases reflect varying outcomes based on Stripe's competitive position, market penetration success, and ecosystem expansion potential.

Growth assumptions range from a conservative 15% in the bear case to an ambitious 35% in the bull case, with corresponding multiples of 4.5x to 10.0x reflecting varying levels of market confidence. The base case projects moderate 20% growth with a 7.0x multiple, aligning with Stripe's current trajectory.

Our bear, base, and bull cases for Stripe reflect varying scenarios of competitive pressure, market penetration, and ecosystem expansion success

The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on Stripe's ability to defend against regional competitors, successfully expand internationally, maintain its ecosystem advantage, and potentially transition to a closed-loop network competing directly with established payment networks like Visa and Mastercard.

These final valuations present a wide range of potential outcomes for Stripe. Even the bear case projects a substantial valuation of $187B in 2028, while the bull case at $714B reflects Stripe's potential to become a dominant force in global financial infrastructure.