Revenue
$8.70B
2023
Valuation
$208.00B
2024
Growth Rate (y/y)
89%
2023
Funding
$9.74B
2024
Valuation: $208.00B in 2024
Since its founding in 2002, SpaceX has raised a total of $9.74B from investors like Andreessen Horowitz, Founders Fund, Sequoia, and Fidelity Investments.
SpaceX was last valued at $208B in an internal tender offer conducted in August 2024, making SpaceX more valuable than both Boeing (NYSE: BA) at $94B and Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) at $144B.
At the end of 2023, SpaceX employees and investors sold stock in a tender offer that valued the company at $180B—based on SpaceX's 2023 revenue of $8.7B, that sale valued SpaceX at about 20.7x their last 12 months revenue (LTM).
Scenarios: $38B to $481B ARR by 2028
To evaluate SpaceX's future potential, we analyze multiple scenarios projecting revenue through 2028, incorporating various growth rates and revenue multiples. These projections, ranging from $38B to $481B in annual recurring revenue, reflect different possible outcomes based on market conditions and execution.
| 2023 Revenue ($B) | $9B | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 89.13% |
With $9B in revenue and an impressive 89.13% growth rate in 2023, SpaceX demonstrates remarkable market momentum. This growth trajectory, driven by both launch services and Starlink expansion, positions the company firmly ahead of traditional aerospace competitors in terms of revenue acceleration.
| Multiple | Valuation |
|---|---|
| 1x | $9B |
| 5x | $44B |
| 10x | $87B |
| 15x | $131B |
| 25x | $218B |
Based on current revenue, valuations span from a conservative $9B at 1x revenue to $218B at 25x revenue. The higher multiple scenario aligns with SpaceX's recent $208B valuation, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory and market leadership position.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $9B | $15B | $22B | $29B | $34B | $38B |
| 15.0% | $9B | $15B | $22B | $30B | $37B | $43B |
| 30.0% | $9B | $15B | $24B | $35B | $48B | $63B |
| 50.0% | $9B | $16B | $26B | $42B | $65B | $98B |
| 90.0% | $9B | $16B | $31B | $59B | $113B | $214B |
| 100.0% | $9B | $17B | $33B | $64B | $127B | $255B |
| 110.0% | $9B | $17B | $34B | $69B | $143B | $301B |
| 125.0% | $9B | $17B | $36B | $77B | $170B | $383B |
| 140.0% | $9B | $18B | $38B | $86B | $200B | $481B |
Projected revenue scenarios range from a conservative $38B at 10% growth to an ambitious $481B at 140% growth by 2028, highlighting SpaceX's explosive growth potential. The most aggressive trajectory would represent a 53x increase from 2023, driven by launch services expansion and Starlink adoption.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 1x | 5x | 10x | 15x | 25x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $38B | $188B | $377B | $565B | $942B |
| 15.0% | $43B | $215B | $430B | $645B | $1.1T |
| 30.0% | $63B | $313B | $625B | $938B | $1.6T |
| 50.0% | $98B | $491B | $981B | $1.5T | $2.5T |
| 90.0% | $214B | $1.1T | $2.1T | $3.2T | $5.3T |
| 100.0% | $255B | $1.3T | $2.5T | $3.8T | $6.4T |
| 110.0% | $301B | $1.5T | $3T | $4.5T | $7.5T |
| 125.0% | $383B | $1.9T | $3.8T | $5.7T | $9.6T |
| 140.0% | $481B | $2.4T | $4.8T | $7.2T | $12T |
Applying varying multiples to projected 2028 revenues yields valuations ranging from $38B at conservative growth to over $12T in the most optimistic scenario. Mid-range projections of 50-90% growth with 10-15x multiples suggest potential valuations between $1-3T, reflecting SpaceX's ambitious growth trajectory.
Bear, Base, and Bull Cases: 12x, 15x, 20x
To provide comprehensive valuation insights, we examine three distinct scenarios using revenue multiples of 12x (bear), 15x (base), and 20x (bull). These cases reflect varying market conditions, competitive dynamics, and execution outcomes that could materially impact SpaceX's future valuation trajectory.
| Scenario | 2028 Growth Rate (%) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Bear 🐻 | 20% | 12 |
| Base 📈 | 45% | 15 |
| Bull 🚀 | 65% | 20 |
Growth projections range significantly across scenarios, from a conservative 20% bear case to an ambitious 65% bull case. Even the most conservative scenario assumes strong multiples (12x), reflecting investor confidence, while the bull case at 20x multiple suggests potential for dramatic value creation through 2028.
| Bear 🐻 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9B | $15B | $23B | $32B | $41B | $49B |
| Growth | 89.13% | 70.54% | 54.57% | 38.59% | 28.24% | 20% |
| Base 📈 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9B | $15B | $26B | $40B | $61B | $88B |
| Growth | 89.13% | 77.26% | 67.07% | 56.87% | 50.26% | 45% |
| Bull 🚀 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9B | $16B | $28B | $48B | $81B | $134B |
| Growth | 89.13% | 82.64% | 77.07% | 71.49% | 67.88% | 65% |
Our analysis of SpaceX's potential future valuation varies significantly across three scenarios, driven by different growth trajectories and market multiples
- In the bear case: SpaceX's growth decelerates to 20% by 2028, reaching a valuation of $587B based on $49B revenue at a 12x multiple
- In the base case: SpaceX maintains stronger 45% growth through 2028, achieving a $1,321B valuation based on $88B revenue at a 15x multiple
- In the bull case: SpaceX sustains 65% growth while expanding into new markets, commanding a valuation of $2,673B based on $134B revenue at a 20x multiple.
| Scenario | 1. Bear 🐻 | 2. Base 📈 | 3. Bull 🚀 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Revenue | $9B | $9B | $9B |
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 89% | 89% | 89% |
| 2023 Multiple | 12 | 15 | 20 |
| 2023 Valuation | $104B | $131B | $174B |
| 2028 Revenue | $49B | $88B | $134B |
| 2028 Growth Rate (%) | 20% | 45% | 65% |
| Multiple | 12 | 15 | 20 |
| 2028 Valuation | $587B | $1.3T | $2.7T |
To explore these scenarios in detail, we analyze three cases reflecting different market conditions and execution outcomes. The key variables driving these scenarios are Starlink's growth trajectory, SpaceX's position in launch services, and their ability to develop new revenue streams while maintaining technological leadership.
- In the Bear case: SpaceX faces intense competition in the launch services market driving down margins, while Starlink's growth slows due to technological limitations and increased satellite internet competition, leading to a more modest 12x multiple reflective of a maturing space transportation company.
- In the Base case: SpaceX maintains its dominant position in launch services while growing Starlink subscribers steadily, achieving strong but not explosive growth across both segments and commanding a 15x multiple in line with other high-growth technology companies.
- In the Bull case: SpaceX successfully expands beyond launch services and Starlink into new revenue streams like space manufacturing, tourism, and LEO platforms, while maintaining its technological edge through reusability innovations, justifying a premium 20x multiple similar to category-defining tech companies.
Based on our analysis, SpaceX's 2028 valuations range from $587B in the bear case to $2.7T in the bull scenario. Even the conservative projection represents nearly 3x growth from current levels, while the optimistic case would establish SpaceX among the world's most valuable companies.
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