Revenue
$109.00M
2022
Valuation
$537.00M
2022
Growth Rate (y/y)
90%
2022
Funding
$221.00M
2022
Valuation: $537.00M in 2022
Prove's competitors by revenue and revenue growth. Bubble size indicates valuation. Figures estimated using publicly available information.
Prove has raised $221M from investors such as Relay Ventures, Synchrony, TransUnion, and American Express Ventures. It was last valued at $537M, pegging its valuation/revenue multiple at 4.7x. Socure is one of the highest valued identity verification companies. It has raised $648M with a valuation of $4.5B for a valuation/revenue multiple of 45x.
Prove's multiple is comparable to its publicly-listed competitors. For instance, Riskified, with $229M in revenue and $856M in market cap, has a multiple of 3.7x. TeleSign, which intends to go public through SPAC, has a multiple of 3.4x with revenue of $386M and a $1.3B valuation.
Scenarios: $476M to $6.1B ARR by 2026
To evaluate Prove's future potential, we've modeled multiple scenarios projecting the company's growth through 2026. These scenarios incorporate various growth rates and revenue multiples to estimate possible valuations, taking into account market conditions and competitive dynamics in the identity verification space.
| 2021 Revenue ($M) | $109M | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Growth Rate (%) | 90.00% |
At $109M in 2021, Prove demonstrated strong market momentum with 90% year-over-year growth, indicating robust demand for its identity verification solutions and successful penetration across banking, healthcare, and retail sectors, with fintech customers driving significant new business acquisition.
| Multiple | Valuation |
|---|---|
| 1x | $109M |
| 5x | $545M |
| 10x | $1.1B |
| 15x | $1.6B |
| 25x | $2.7B |
Based on 2021 revenue of $109M, potential valuations span from $109M at a conservative 1x multiple to $2.7B at 25x. While Prove's current 4.7x multiple aligns with public competitors like Riskified, industry leader Socure commands a premium 45x multiple, suggesting room for valuation expansion.
| 2026 Growth Rate | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $109M | $184M | $275M | $362M | $433M | $476M |
| 15.0% | $109M | $185M | $282M | $382M | $473M | $544M |
| 30.0% | $109M | $190M | $303M | $443M | $608M | $790M |
| 50.0% | $109M | $195M | $332M | $534M | $826M | $1.2B |
| 90.0% | $109M | $207M | $393M | $748M | $1.4B | $2.7B |
| 100.0% | $109M | $210M | $410M | $808M | $1.6B | $3.2B |
| 110.0% | $109M | $213M | $426M | $872M | $1.8B | $3.8B |
| 125.0% | $109M | $217M | $451M | $972M | $2.1B | $4.8B |
| 140.0% | $109M | $222M | $477M | $1.1B | $2.5B | $6.1B |
Revenue projections span from a conservative $476M at 10% growth to an ambitious $6.1B at 140% growth by 2026, representing a 4.4x to 56x increase from 2021. This range reflects both market uncertainty and significant upside potential in the identity verification space.
| 2026 Growth Rate | 1x | 5x | 10x | 15x | 25x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $476M | $2.4B | $4.8B | $7.1B | $11.9B |
| 15.0% | $544M | $2.7B | $5.4B | $8.2B | $13.6B |
| 30.0% | $790M | $4B | $7.9B | $11.9B | $19.8B |
| 50.0% | $1.2B | $6.2B | $12.4B | $18.6B | $31B |
| 90.0% | $2.7B | $13.5B | $27B | $40.5B | $67.5B |
| 100.0% | $3.2B | $16.1B | $32.1B | $48.2B | $80.3B |
| 110.0% | $3.8B | $19B | $38B | $57B | $95B |
| 125.0% | $4.8B | $24.2B | $48.3B | $72.5B | $120.8B |
| 140.0% | $6.1B | $30.3B | $60.7B | $91B | $151.7B |
Projected 2026 valuations range from $476M at conservative growth/multiple assumptions to over $151B in an aggressive scenario, highlighting significant upside potential. Even moderate growth of 30% with a 10x multiple could yield a $7.9B valuation, marking substantial value creation from current levels.
Bear, Base, and Bull Cases: 5.2x, 6.5x, 8.0x
To provide deeper insight into Prove's potential trajectories, we've developed bear, base, and bull case scenarios. These valuations reflect varying market conditions, competitive dynamics, and execution capabilities that could influence the company's growth path and investor perceptions in the identity verification space.
| Scenario | 2026 Growth Rate (%) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Bear 🐻 | 30% | 5.2 |
| Base 📈 | 45% | 6.5 |
| Bull 🚀 | 60% | 8.0 |
Growth projections range from a conservative 30% bear case with a 5.2x multiple to an ambitious 60% bull case at 8.0x, with the base case assuming 45% growth and a 6.5x multiple. These scenarios reflect varying market conditions while remaining grounded in reasonable expectations for the identity verification space.
| Bear 🐻 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $109M | $190M | $303M | $443M | $608M | $790M |
| Growth | 90.00% | 73.86% | 60.00% | 46.14% | 37.15% | 30% |
| Base 📈 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $109M | $194M | $325M | $510M | $767M | $1.1B |
| Growth | 90.00% | 77.90% | 67.50% | 57.10% | 50.36% | 45% |
| Bull 🚀 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $109M | $198M | $347M | $583M | $954M | $1.5B |
| Growth | 90.00% | 81.93% | 75.00% | 68.07% | 63.58% | 60% |
Our valuation scenarios for Prove reflect different trajectories in the identity verification market, with growth rates and multiples varying based on competitive dynamics and market adoption
- In the bear case: Prove reaches $790M revenue with 30% growth by 2026, commanding a 5.2x multiple for a $4.1B valuation amid increased competition
- In the base case: Prove achieves $1.1B revenue with 45% growth, earning a 6.5x multiple for a $7.2B valuation through successful expansion in core verticals
- In the bull case: Prove grows to $1.5B revenue with 60% growth, securing an 8.0x multiple for a $12.2B valuation by becoming the dominant player in mobile identity verification.
| Scenario | 1. Bear 🐻 | 2. Base 📈 | 3. Bull 🚀 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Revenue | $109M | $109M | $109M |
| 2021 Growth Rate (%) | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| 2021 Multiple | 5.2 | 6.5 | 8.0 |
| 2021 Valuation | $567M | $709M | $872M |
| 2026 Revenue | $790M | $1.1B | $1.5B |
| 2026 Growth Rate (%) | 30% | 45% | 60% |
| Multiple | 5.2 | 6.5 | 8.0 |
| 2026 Valuation | $4.1B | $7.2B | $12.2B |
The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on Prove's ability to differentiate its phone-based verification approach, maintain growth in core verticals, and successfully expand into behavioral biometrics. Market adoption rates, competitive pressure from big tech, and geographic expansion success will significantly impact outcomes.
- In the Bear case: Prove faces increasing competition from document-centric verification solutions and big tech companies like Apple and Google, while struggling to differentiate its phone-number-based approach in a market demanding more sophisticated authentication methods.
- In the Base case: Prove successfully leverages its phone-number-based identity database and relationships with major telecoms to maintain strong growth in its core financial and healthcare verticals, while gradually expanding into new sectors and geographies.
- In the Bull case: Prove's acquisition of UnifyID and expansion into behavioral biometrics, combined with its established database of over 1 billion identities, allows it to become the dominant player in mobile-first identity verification across global markets, particularly in emerging economies where mobile is the primary computing device.
These final valuations present a significant range of potential outcomes for Prove. While the bear case projects a $4.1B valuation by 2026, the bull case at $12.2B would position Prove as a major player in the identity verification space, reflecting strong market opportunities and execution potential.
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