Revenue
$308.00M
2023
Valuation
$13.40B
2021
Growth Rate (y/y)
12%
2023
Funding
$734.00M
2021
Valuation: $13.40B in 2021
Note: Horizontal axis is in log scale for visual clarity. Size of the bubble indicates valuation.
Plaid raised $734M from Altimeter Capital, Index Ventures, Kleiner Perkins and Spark Capital. Its last private valuation is $13.4B, at a revenue multiple of 54x. Plaid is the third highest valued fintech startup in the US after Stripe ($74B), and Chime ($25B).
Scenarios: $665M to $2.8B ARR by 2026
To evaluate Plaid's future potential, we've developed multiple scenarios projecting the company's growth from 2021 to 2026. These scenarios consider various growth rates and revenue multiples to estimate potential ARR outcomes, taking into account market dynamics and company performance factors.
| 2021 Revenue ($M) | $250M | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Growth Rate (%) | 47.06% |
Plaid generated $250M in revenue for 2021, achieving a solid 47.06% growth rate. This performance demonstrates strong market traction in the fintech infrastructure space, though growth has moderated from its earlier years' CAGR of 58%.
| Multiple | Valuation |
|---|---|
| 1x | $250M |
| 5x | $1.2B |
| 10x | $2.5B |
| 15x | $3.8B |
| 25x | $6.2B |
Based on 2021 revenue of $250M, valuations scale from $250M at 1x to $6.25B at 25x multiple. While even the highest multiple falls short of Plaid's actual $13.4B valuation, this illustrates the premium investors placed on Plaid's growth potential and market position.
| 2026 Growth Rate | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $250M | $343M | $441M | $528M | $605M | $665M |
| 15.0% | $250M | $346M | $453M | $561M | $666M | $766M |
| 20.0% | $250M | $349M | $467M | $594M | $732M | $878M |
| 30.0% | $250M | $356M | $493M | $664M | $877M | $1.1B |
| 45.0% | $250M | $366M | $535M | $779M | $1.1B | $1.6B |
| 50.0% | $250M | $370M | $549M | $819M | $1.2B | $1.8B |
| 55.0% | $250M | $373M | $563M | $861M | $1.3B | $2.1B |
| 65.0% | $250M | $380M | $592M | $949M | $1.5B | $2.5B |
| 70.0% | $250M | $383M | $607M | $995M | $1.7B | $2.8B |
Revenue projections through 2026 show potential outcomes ranging from $665M at 10% growth to $2.8B at 70% growth, representing a 2.7x to 11.3x increase from 2021. Higher growth scenarios align better with Plaid's historic performance and current market valuation expectations.
| 2026 Growth Rate | 1x | 5x | 10x | 15x | 25x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $665M | $3.3B | $6.7B | $10B | $16.6B |
| 15.0% | $766M | $3.8B | $7.7B | $11.5B | $19.2B |
| 20.0% | $878M | $4.4B | $8.8B | $13.2B | $22B |
| 30.0% | $1.1B | $5.7B | $11.4B | $17.1B | $28.5B |
| 45.0% | $1.6B | $8.2B | $16.4B | $24.6B | $41B |
| 50.0% | $1.8B | $9.2B | $18.4B | $27.6B | $46B |
| 55.0% | $2.1B | $10.3B | $20.6B | $30.8B | $51.4B |
| 65.0% | $2.5B | $12.8B | $25.5B | $38.3B | $63.8B |
| 70.0% | $2.8B | $14.1B | $28.3B | $42.4B | $70.7B |
Projected 2026 valuations range from $665M at conservative growth (10%) and multiple (1x) to $70.7B under aggressive assumptions (70% growth, 25x multiple). Mid-range scenarios of 30-45% growth with 10-15x multiples suggest potential valuations of $11-25B, aligned with Plaid's current trajectory.
Bear, Base, and Bull Cases: 5.5x, 7.5x, 9.5x
To provide a detailed assessment of Plaid's potential outcomes, we've developed bear, base, and bull case scenarios. These projections account for key market factors, competitive dynamics, and execution risks that could influence Plaid's growth trajectory and investor sentiment over the next five years.
| Scenario | 2026 Growth Rate (%) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Bear 🐻 | 15% | 5.5 |
| Base 📈 | 28% | 7.5 |
| Bull 🚀 | 40% | 9.5 |
Growth projections range from conservative (15% with 5.5x multiple) to aggressive (40% with 9.5x multiple), reflecting varying market confidence levels. Even the bear case maintains relatively strong growth assumptions, indicating the market's continued optimistic outlook on Plaid's position in the fintech infrastructure space.
| Bear 🐻 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $250M | $346M | $453M | $561M | $666M | $766M |
| Growth | 47.06% | 38.44% | 31.03% | 23.62% | 18.82% | 15% |
| Base 📈 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $250M | $355M | $488M | $650M | $846M | $1.1B |
| Growth | 47.06% | 41.93% | 37.53% | 33.13% | 30.27% | 28% |
| Bull 🚀 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $250M | $363M | $521M | $739M | $1B | $1.5B |
| Growth | 47.06% | 45.16% | 43.53% | 41.90% | 40.84% | 40% |
Our bear, base, and bull cases for Plaid hinge largely on competitive dynamics and the company's ability to expand beyond its core data aggregation business
- In the bear case, competitive pressures lead to slowing growth of 15% and a modest 5.5x multiple, resulting in a $4.2B valuation on $766M revenue
- In the base case, Plaid maintains its market leadership while expanding services, achieving 28% growth and a 7.5x multiple for an $8.1B valuation on $1.1B revenue
- In the bull case, Plaid transforms into a dominant payment network with 40% growth and commands a 9.5x multiple, reaching a $13.8B valuation on $1.5B revenue.
| Scenario | 1. Bear 🐻 | 2. Base 📈 | 3. Bull 🚀 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Revenue | $250M | $250M | $250M |
| 2021 Growth Rate (%) | 47% | 47% | 47% |
| 2021 Multiple | 5.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 |
| 2021 Valuation | $1.4B | $1.9B | $2.4B |
| 2026 Revenue | $766M | $1.1B | $1.5B |
| 2026 Growth Rate (%) | 15% | 28% | 40% |
| Multiple | 5.5 | 7.5 | 9.5 |
| 2026 Valuation | $4.2B | $8.1B | $13.8B |
The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on Plaid's ability to expand beyond data aggregation, maintain its network effects against emerging competitors, and successfully transition into new revenue streams like ACH payments and income verification while navigating relationships with traditional banks and fintech customers.
- In the Bear case: Competitive pressures from FedNow and RTP networks, combined with banks restricting API access and the rise of direct payroll API competitors, force Plaid to operate mainly as a commoditized data aggregator with compressed margins.
- In the Base case: Plaid successfully maintains its position as the leading fintech data aggregator while gradually expanding into income verification and ACH payments, leveraging its existing network of 2,600 fintech customers and 500 million linked bank accounts.
- In the Bull case: Plaid transforms into a dominant Visa-like payment network for ACH transactions, successfully bundles banking and payroll data for enhanced underwriting capabilities, and creates a robust three-sided network between consumers, banks, and fintechs that becomes the de facto standard for financial data access and money movement.
These final valuations present a range of outcomes for Plaid. The bear case projects a modest $4.2B valuation by 2026, while the base case at $8.1B and bull case at $13.8B reflect Plaid's potential to maintain or expand its fintech infrastructure leadership position.
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