Note: Revenue, growth rate, and valuation based on publicly available information. Size of the bubble indicates valuation. Both axes on log scale for visual clarity.

Pipe has raised $371M from investors like Greenspring, Craft Ventures, KSD Capital, and Mindrock Capital. It was last valued at $2B at a valuation/revenue multiple of 133x. Pipe’s last funding round (Series A) was in August 2021, when fintechs with high growth and large TAM commanded rich valuations. Pipe mentions that the round was oversubscribed and it ended up raising $250M, against its target of $150M.  As the funding market has become tougher in the last six months, many fintechs have lost substantial value with publicly listed fintechs losing $500B in market cap in 2022. Even privately held fintechs raising new rounds are doing so at substantial discounts. Klarna raised a new round at an 85% discount to its earlier valuation of $45B, and Stripe recently reduced its valuation by 30%.

To evaluate Pipe's future potential, we've modeled multiple scenarios projecting revenue growth through 2027. These scenarios consider various growth rates and valuation multiples, accounting for both market conditions and company performance factors in the evolving fintech landscape.

Pipe generated $23M in revenue for 2022, maintaining a solid 50% growth rate despite increased market competition and rising interest rates. While growth has moderated from previous years' triple-digit increases, the company continues to expand as it diversifies beyond its core SaaS customer base.

Based on current revenue of $23M, valuations span from $23M at a conservative 1x multiple to $563M at an aggressive 25x multiple. Even at the highest multiple, this represents a significant discount to Pipe's last private valuation of $2B, reflecting broader fintech market corrections.

Revenue projections span from a conservative $62M at 10% growth to an aggressive $320M at 80% growth by 2027, representing potential outcomes from steady expansion to hypergrowth scenarios. Even the modest growth case would nearly triple 2022's revenue, while the bullish case suggests 14x growth.

Based on projected 2027 revenue scenarios, valuations could range from $62M at the most conservative case (10% growth, 1x multiple) to $8B in an aggressive growth scenario (80% growth, 25x multiple), reflecting the wide spectrum of potential outcomes dependent on Pipe's execution and market conditions.

To provide a more granular assessment, we've developed three valuation scenarios that reflect potential market conditions and Pipe's execution. These cases incorporate key factors like competitive dynamics, market adoption rates, and broader fintech sentiment to frame realistic outcomes for the company's trajectory.

Growth projections range from conservative (15% with 4.5x multiple) to aggressive (45% with 8.5x multiple), reflecting varying market sentiment and execution scenarios. Even the bear case assumes continued expansion, while the bull case anticipates sustained high growth and premium valuation multiples typical of successful fintech platforms.

Our bear, base, and bull cases for Pipe depend primarily on how successfully the company navigates competitive pressures and executes on growth initiatives through 2027

The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on how successfully Pipe can maintain its competitive advantage, manage risk in a challenging macro environment, and execute on expansion opportunities like banking services and international growth while preserving marketplace dynamics and buyer confidence.

These final valuations present a spectrum of outcomes for Pipe, from a conservative $322M in the bear case to $1.3B in the bull case by 2027. Even the most optimistic scenario suggests a valuation below Pipe's 2022 peak of $2B, reflecting broader fintech market corrections.