Revenue
$50.00M
2021
Valuation
$800.00M
2021
Growth Rate (y/y)
354%
2021
Funding
$704.60M
2021
Valuation: $800.00M in 2021
Petal has raised $704.6M through debt ($460.6M) and equity ($244M) from Silicon Valley Bank, Jeffries, Valar Ventures, Afore Capital, and others. Its last fundraising round in Jan 2022 valued the company at $800M. Other fintechs that extend credit cards to consumers using alternative datasets include TomoCredit (estimated valuation of $245M), Oportun ($400M), and Deserve ($500M).
Scenarios: $199M to $572M ARR by 2028
To evaluate Petal's future potential, we've modeled multiple scenarios projecting the company's growth from 2022 to 2028. These scenarios consider various growth rates and revenue multiples, accounting for market conditions, competitive dynamics, and the company's ability to scale its alternative credit card business.
| 2023 Revenue ($M) | $100M | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 25.00% |
Petal's current revenue of $100M represents strong momentum from its $50M in 2021, though growth has moderated to 25% in 2023. This growth trajectory, while solid, reflects a more measured expansion compared to the company's earlier rapid scaling phase.
| Multiple | Valuation |
|---|---|
| 1x | $100M |
| 5x | $500M |
| 10x | $1B |
| 15x | $1.5B |
| 25x | $2.5B |
Based on current revenue of $100M, valuations span from $100M at a conservative 1x multiple to $2.5B at an aggressive 25x multiple. The 10x multiple valuation of $1B represents a premium to Petal's last funding round, reflecting potential upside from its alternative credit scoring technology.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $100M | $121M | $142M | $162M | $181M | $199M |
| 13.0% | $100M | $122M | $145M | $168M | $193M | $218M |
| 16.0% | $100M | $123M | $148M | $175M | $205M | $238M |
| 20.0% | $100M | $124M | $151M | $184M | $222M | $266M |
| 25.0% | $100M | $125M | $156M | $195M | $244M | $305M |
| 30.0% | $100M | $126M | $161M | $207M | $268M | $349M |
| 35.0% | $100M | $128M | $166M | $220M | $294M | $397M |
| 42.0% | $100M | $130M | $173M | $238M | $333M | $473M |
| 50.0% | $100M | $132M | $181M | $260M | $382M | $572M |
Revenue projections indicate potential outcomes ranging from $199M at a modest 10% growth rate to $572M at an aggressive 50% growth rate by 2028. This represents a 2x to 5.7x increase from 2023 revenues, reflecting varying scenarios for market penetration and product adoption.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 1x | 5x | 10x | 15x | 25x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $199M | $997M | $2B | $3B | $5B |
| 13.0% | $218M | $1.1B | $2.2B | $3.3B | $5.4B |
| 16.0% | $238M | $1.2B | $2.4B | $3.6B | $5.9B |
| 20.0% | $266M | $1.3B | $2.7B | $4B | $6.7B |
| 25.0% | $305M | $1.5B | $3.1B | $4.6B | $7.6B |
| 30.0% | $349M | $1.7B | $3.5B | $5.2B | $8.7B |
| 35.0% | $397M | $2B | $4B | $6B | $9.9B |
| 42.0% | $473M | $2.4B | $4.7B | $7.1B | $11.8B |
| 50.0% | $572M | $2.9B | $5.7B | $8.6B | $14.3B |
Based on projected 2028 revenues, potential valuations range from $199M at conservative estimates (10% growth, 1x multiple) to $14.3B in aggressive scenarios (50% growth, 25x multiple), reflecting significant upside potential depending on Petal's execution and market conditions.
Bear, Base, and Bull Cases: 3.5x, 5.5x, 7.5x
To provide a focused analysis of Petal's potential trajectories, we've developed bear, base, and bull case scenarios representing 3.5x, 5.5x, and 7.5x multiples respectively. These cases factor in market conditions, competitive dynamics, and Petal's ability to scale its alternative credit offering.
| Scenario | 2028 Growth Rate (%) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Bear 🐻 | 15% | 3.5 |
| Base 📈 | 22% | 5.5 |
| Bull 🚀 | 35% | 7.5 |
Growth projections range from conservative (15% growth, 3.5x multiple) to aggressive (35% growth, 7.5x multiple), with the base case of 22% growth and 5.5x multiple representing a balanced outlook. These multiples reflect fintech industry dynamics and Petal's potential to scale its alternative lending model.
| Bear 🐻 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $100M | $122M | $147M | $173M | $201M | $231M |
| Growth | 25.00% | 22.31% | 20.00% | 17.69% | 16.19% | 15% |
| Base 📈 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $100M | $124M | $153M | $188M | $230M | $281M |
| Growth | 25.00% | 24.19% | 23.50% | 22.81% | 22.36% | 22% |
| Bull 🚀 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $100M | $128M | $166M | $220M | $294M | $397M |
| Growth | 25.00% | 27.69% | 30.00% | 32.31% | 33.81% | 35% |
Our bear, base, and bull cases for Petal reflect varying scenarios of market conditions, product expansion, and adoption of its alternative credit scoring technology
- In the bear case: rising interest rates and increased competition lead to a $808M valuation with $231M revenue growing at 15% and a compressed 3.5x multiple
- In the base case: successful core business growth and B2B expansion drive a $1,546M valuation with $281M revenue growing at 22% and a 5.5x multiple
- In the bull case: multi-product expansion and industry-leading technology adoption result in a $2,976M valuation with $397M revenue growing at 35% and a premium 7.5x multiple.
| Scenario | 1. Bear 🐻 | 2. Base 📈 | 3. Bull 🚀 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Revenue | $100M | $100M | $100M |
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| 2023 Multiple | 3.5 | 5.5 | 7.5 |
| 2023 Valuation | $350M | $550M | $750M |
| 2028 Revenue | $231M | $281M | $397M |
| 2028 Growth Rate (%) | 15% | 22% | 35% |
| Multiple | 3.5 | 5.5 | 7.5 |
| 2028 Valuation | $808M | $1.5B | $3B |
The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on Petal's ability to navigate interest rate pressures, expand its core credit card business, successfully monetize Prism Data as a B2B service, and potentially diversify into additional lending products while maintaining its competitive edge in alternative credit assessment.
- In the Bear case: Rising interest rates continue to pressure consumer lending, while increased BNPL adoption and customer churn to traditional credit cards as credit scores improve lead to slower growth and compressed margins, resulting in the lower 3.5x multiple.
- In the Base case: Petal maintains strong but moderated growth through its core credit card business while successfully launching Prism Data as a B2B service, achieving the 5.5x multiple in line with typical fintech growth companies.
- In the Bull case: Petal successfully expands beyond credit cards into multiple lending products (auto, personal loans, POS lending), while Prism Data becomes the industry standard for cash-flow based credit assessment, driving the premium 7.5x multiple.
These final valuations present a range of outcomes for Petal, from a bear case of $808M to a bull case of $3B in 2028. Even the conservative scenario projects modest growth, while the bull case would position Petal as a leading fintech player in alternative lending.
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