Revenue
$7.00B
2023
Valuation
$31.00B
2022
Growth Rate (y/y)
16.7%
2023
Funding
$4.80B
2024
Valuation: $31.00B in 2022
Fanatics was last valued at $31 billion in December 2022 following a $700 million funding round led by Clearlake Capital Group LP. The company is generating approximately $7 billion in revenue in 2023, implying a ~4.4x revenue multiple on that last valuation.
Key investors include SoftBank Group Corp., Silver Lake, and Fidelity Management & Research Co.
A more recent employee share sale program in 2024 valued the company at $25 billion, representing a 19% discount to the last funding round valuation.
Scenarios: $3M to $8M ARR by 2028
To evaluate Fanatics' potential future value, we've modeled scenarios based on different growth trajectories and revenue multiples. These projections explore possible outcomes from 2023 to 2028, accounting for various market conditions, industry dynamics, and company performance factors.
| 2023 Revenue ($M) | $7M | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 16.67% |
Fanatics demonstrated solid growth with $7 billion revenue in 2023, achieving a 16.67% year-over-year increase. This growth rate reflects the company's successful expansion beyond core merchandise into new verticals like betting and collectibles, though still primarily driven by its dominant sports commerce platform.
| Multiple | Valuation |
|---|---|
| 1x | $7M |
| 5x | $35M |
| 10x | $70M |
| 15x | $105M |
| 25x | $175M |
Based on current $7B revenue, valuations span from a conservative $7M at 1x to an ambitious $175M at 25x multiple. The company's actual $31B valuation implies a ~4.4x multiple, positioning it between the conservative and moderate scenarios shown above.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $2M | $2M | $3M | $3M | $3M | $3M |
| 7.0% | $2M | $2M | $3M | $3M | $3M | $3M |
| 9.0% | $2M | $2M | $3M | $3M | $3M | $3M |
| 11.0% | $2M | $2M | $3M | $3M | $3M | $4M |
| 15.0% | $2M | $2M | $3M | $3M | $4M | $4M |
| 19.0% | $2M | $2M | $3M | $3M | $4M | $5M |
| 24.0% | $2M | $2M | $3M | $3M | $4M | $5M |
| 31.0% | $2M | $2M | $3M | $4M | $5M | $6M |
| 40.0% | $2M | $2M | $3M | $4M | $6M | $8M |
Revenue projections span from $3B at conservative 5% growth to $8B at an aggressive 40% growth rate by 2028. While lower growth scenarios reflect market maturation, higher trajectories suggest successful expansion into betting and collectibles verticals could meaningfully accelerate Fanatics' revenue generation.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 1x | 5x | 10x | 15x | 25x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $3M | $15M | $30M | $46M | $76M |
| 7.0% | $3M | $16M | $32M | $49M | $81M |
| 9.0% | $3M | $17M | $34M | $52M | $86M |
| 11.0% | $4M | $18M | $37M | $55M | $91M |
| 15.0% | $4M | $21M | $41M | $62M | $103M |
| 19.0% | $5M | $23M | $46M | $69M | $116M |
| 24.0% | $5M | $27M | $53M | $80M | $133M |
| 31.0% | $6M | $32M | $64M | $96M | $161M |
| 40.0% | $8M | $41M | $81M | $122M | $203M |
Based on projected 2028 growth scenarios, valuations range from $3B at conservative multiples to over $200B in the most optimistic case (40% growth, 25x multiple). Mid-range scenarios of 15-24% growth with 10-15x multiples suggest potential valuations of $40-80B, representing meaningful upside from current levels.
Bear, Base, and Bull Cases: 6.5x, 8.5x, 10.5x
To assess Fanatics' potential outcomes, we've modeled bear, base, and bull case scenarios using multiples of 6.5x, 8.5x, and 10.5x respectively. These scenarios account for key variables including market expansion success, competitive dynamics, and the company's ability to execute across its diverse verticals.
| Scenario | 2028 Growth Rate (%) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Bear 🐻 | 12% | 6.5 |
| Base 📈 | 15% | 8.5 |
| Bull 🚀 | 25% | 10.5 |
Even in the bear case with 12% growth, Fanatics commands a healthy 6.5x multiple, reflecting strong fundamentals and market positioning. The base case builds on current momentum at 15% growth, while the bull scenario at 25% growth and 10.5x multiple assumes successful expansion into betting and collectibles verticals.
| Bear 🐻 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7M | $8M | $9M | $10M | $12M | $13M |
| Growth | 16.67% | 15.41% | 14.33% | 13.26% | 12.56% | 12% |
| Base 📈 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7M | $8M | $9M | $11M | $13M | $14M |
| Growth | 16.67% | 16.22% | 15.83% | 15.45% | 15.20% | 15% |
| Bull 🚀 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7M | $8M | $10M | $12M | $15M | $19M |
| Growth | 16.67% | 18.91% | 20.83% | 22.76% | 24.01% | 25% |
Our bear, base, and bull cases for Fanatics reflect varying scenarios around growth trajectory and multiple expansion based on execution across verticals
- In the bear case, deteriorating relationships and competitive pressures lead to 12% terminal growth and a 6.5x multiple, resulting in an $86B valuation ($13B revenue)
- In the base case, continued strength in core commerce and moderate success in new verticals drives 15% growth and an 8.5x multiple for a $123B valuation ($14B revenue)
- In the bull case, successful transformation into a comprehensive sports platform enables 25% growth and a 10.5x multiple, achieving a $201B valuation ($19B revenue).
| Scenario | 1. Bear 🐻 | 2. Base 📈 | 3. Bull 🚀 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Revenue | $7M | $7M | $7M |
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| 2023 Multiple | 6.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| 2023 Valuation | $46M | $60M | $74M |
| 2028 Revenue | $13M | $14M | $19M |
| 2028 Growth Rate (%) | 12% | 15% | 25% |
| Multiple | 6.5 | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| 2028 Valuation | $86M | $123M | $201M |
The uncertainty around these three cases depends primarily on Fanatics' ability to maintain exclusive league relationships, successfully expand into betting and collectibles verticals, and execute its v-commerce model across multiple channels while preserving margins and quality standards in its core business.
- In the Bear case: Fanatics faces deteriorating league relationships and manufacturing quality issues while its betting and collectibles expansions struggle against established competitors, leading to compressed margins and a retreat to its core commerce business at lower multiples in line with traditional retailers.
- In the Base case: Fanatics maintains its strong core commerce business through exclusive licensing deals while achieving moderate success in betting and collectibles verticals, leveraging its 100M+ customer database for cross-selling opportunities and maintaining healthy growth rates.
- In the Bull case: Fanatics successfully transforms into a Disney-like sports platform company, with its v-commerce model creating powerful synergies across merchandise, betting, and collectibles while expanding internationally, particularly in soccer markets, and pioneering new verticals like live experiences and digital collectibles.
These final valuations demonstrate significant potential outcomes for Fanatics. Even the bear case projects substantial growth to $86B by 2028, while the bull case at $201B would establish Fanatics as a dominant force across sports commerce, betting, and collectibles verticals.
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