Revenue
$27.00M
2023
Valuation
$11.00B
2021
Growth Rate (y/y)
4%
2023
Funding
$963.00M
2021
Valuation: $11.00B in 2021
Valuation, revenue and growth rate as per publicly available information. Size of bubble indicates valuation.
Bolt has raised $963M from investors like General Atlantic, Westcap, Activant Capital, and Tribe Capital. It was last valued at $11B for a valuation/revenue multiple of 392x. Almost all of Bolt’s competitors, private or public, have seen their valuation dip significantly in the last few months. For instance, Fidelity marked down Stripe’s valuation by 35% from a high of $95B. Similarly, PayPal and Affirm have lost 63% and 82% of their market cap, respectively. The valuation/revenue multiple is much lower for all of Bolt’s competitors with PayPal at 3.5x, Shopify at 10x, Stripe at 25x, and Checkout.com at 47x.
Scenarios: $30M to $72M ARR by 2028
To evaluate Bolt's future potential, we analyze multiple scenarios projecting revenue growth through 2028. These scenarios consider various market conditions, competitive dynamics, and growth trajectories, incorporating different revenue multiples to estimate potential valuations in the evolving fintech landscape.
| 2023 Revenue ($M) | $27M | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 4.38% |
Bolt's modest 4.38% revenue growth in 2023, reaching $27M, reflects challenging market conditions. This performance is notably lower than competitors, highlighting potential scaling challenges as the company seeks to establish its position in the competitive one-click checkout space.
| Multiple | Valuation |
|---|---|
| 1x | $27M |
| 5x | $135M |
| 10x | $270M |
| 15x | $405M |
| 25x | $675M |
Based on current revenue of $27M, valuations range from $27M at 1x to $675M at 25x multiple. These multiples reflect a more conservative outlook compared to Bolt's previous $11B valuation, aligning closer with current market conditions and peer companies like PayPal (3.5x) and Shopify (10x).
| 2028 Growth Rate | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0% | $27M | $28M | $29M | $29M | $30M | $30M |
| 1.5% | $27M | $28M | $29M | $29M | $30M | $30M |
| 2.2% | $27M | $28M | $29M | $30M | $30M | $31M |
| 3.3% | $27M | $28M | $29M | $30M | $31M | $32M |
| 5.0% | $27M | $28M | $30M | $31M | $33M | $34M |
| 7.8% | $27M | $28M | $30M | $32M | $35M | $37M |
| 12.2% | $27M | $29M | $31M | $34M | $38M | $43M |
| 19.2% | $27M | $29M | $33M | $38M | $44M | $53M |
| 30.0% | $27M | $30M | $35M | $43M | $55M | $72M |
Revenue projections through 2028 span from $30M at 1% growth to $72M at 30% growth, representing potential outcomes ranging from minimal expansion to aggressive scaling. Even the most optimistic scenario suggests more modest growth compared to Bolt's historical valuations and peer benchmarks.
| 2028 Growth Rate | 1x | 5x | 10x | 15x | 25x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0% | $30M | $150M | $299M | $449M | $749M |
| 1.5% | $30M | $152M | $304M | $457M | $761M |
| 2.2% | $31M | $156M | $312M | $467M | $779M |
| 3.3% | $32M | $162M | $323M | $485M | $808M |
| 5.0% | $34M | $171M | $341M | $512M | $853M |
| 7.8% | $37M | $187M | $373M | $560M | $933M |
| 12.2% | $43M | $214M | $428M | $642M | $1.1B |
| 19.2% | $53M | $264M | $528M | $791M | $1.3B |
| 30.0% | $72M | $358M | $715M | $1.1B | $1.8B |
Projected 2028 valuations range from $30M at conservative growth/multiple assumptions to $1.8B in the most optimistic scenario (30% growth, 25x multiple). Even the highest projection falls significantly below Bolt's previous $11B valuation, reflecting a more realistic outlook aligned with current market conditions.
Bear, Base, and Bull Cases: 4.5x, 6.5x, 8.5x
To provide a comprehensive view of Bolt's potential trajectories, we examine bear, base, and bull case scenarios using multiples of 4.5x, 6.5x, and 8.5x respectively. These cases reflect varying market conditions, competitive dynamics, and execution capabilities while maintaining alignment with current fintech valuations.
| Scenario | 2028 Growth Rate (%) | Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Bear 🐻 | 2% | 4.5 |
| Base 📈 | 4% | 6.5 |
| Bull 🚀 | 6% | 8.5 |
These scenarios reflect a significantly more conservative outlook compared to Bolt's previous 392x multiple, with even the bull case at 8.5x aligning closer to current fintech market conditions. Growth projections range from modest (2%) to moderate (6%), acknowledging the challenging competitive landscape and scaling hurdles.
| Bear 🐻 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27M | $28M | $29M | $30M | $30M | $31M |
| Growth | 4.38% | 3.74% | 3.19% | 2.64% | 2.28% | 2% |
| Base 📈 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27M | $28M | $29M | $31M | $32M | $33M |
| Growth | 4.38% | 4.28% | 4.19% | 4.10% | 4.05% | 4% |
| Bull 🚀 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $27M | $28M | $30M | $31M | $33M | $35M |
| Growth | 4.38% | 4.82% | 5.19% | 5.56% | 5.81% | 6% |
The growth trajectory and valuation multiples for Bolt vary significantly across our three scenarios, reflecting different levels of success in achieving network effects and competitive positioning in the fintech space
- In the bear case, Bolt's growth declines to 2% by 2028 with $31M in revenue at a 4.5x multiple, reaching a modest valuation of $139M due to intensified competition and pricing pressure
- In the base case, Bolt maintains 4% growth reaching $33M in revenue by 2028 with a 6.5x multiple, achieving a $215M valuation through moderate network effects and value-added services
- In the bull case, Bolt accelerates to 6% growth with $35M in revenue and commands an 8.5x multiple for a $300M valuation by successfully establishing itself as a comprehensive commerce platform.
| Scenario | 1. Bear 🐻 | 2. Base 📈 | 3. Bull 🚀 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Revenue | $27M | $27M | $27M |
| 2023 Growth Rate (%) | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| 2023 Multiple | 4.5 | 6.5 | 8.5 |
| 2023 Valuation | $122M | $176M | $230M |
| 2028 Revenue | $31M | $33M | $35M |
| 2028 Growth Rate (%) | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| Multiple | 4.5 | 6.5 | 8.5 |
| 2028 Valuation | $139M | $215M | $300M |
The uncertainty across these three cases depends primarily on Bolt's ability to achieve network effects, maintain its higher take rate amid competition, and successfully expand beyond checkout into a broader commerce platform while navigating challenging market conditions and scaling requirements.
- In the Bear case: Bolt struggles to achieve network effects amid intense competition from established players like Stripe and Shop Pay, leading to continued slow growth and forcing it to compete primarily on price, resulting in the lower 4.5x multiple that's more in line with traditional payment processors.
- In the Base case: Bolt successfully maintains its higher take rate and gradually expands its merchant base while building out value-added services, achieving moderate network effects that justify a 6.5x multiple in line with typical fintech companies.
- In the Bull case: Bolt successfully executes its vision of becoming the "Salesforce of headless commerce" by leveraging its shopper network to build a comprehensive suite of merchant tools and analytics, while significantly accelerating growth through network effects, supporting an 8.5x multiple.
These final valuations indicate a significant downward revision from Bolt's previous $11B valuation. Even the most optimistic bull case projects a $300M valuation by 2028, while the bear case at $139M reflects ongoing challenges in achieving network effects and competitive positioning in the fintech space.
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